Monday, June 21, 2010

U.S. economic news for the week ended June 1, 2010

U.S. stocks, which earlier in the week recorded one of their biggest gains of the year, were in retreat by Friday, losing ground after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers and amid fresh concerns about eurozone sovereign debt. The euro dropped to its lowest level in four years after investors resumed their flight from riskier assets following a Hungarian senior official's warning that the country is in the midst of a Greece-like sovereign credit crisis.

U.S. economic news

Payrolls rise less than expected; unemployment falls to 9.7%
Payrolls rose by 431,000 in May after a 290,000 increase in April. The gain was smaller than expected and reflected a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary help for the 2010 census. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% as Americans suspended their job searches.

Manufacturing continues rebound
U.S. manufacturing grew at a solid pace in May as export orders continued to expand rapidly. The Institute for Supply Management reported that an index of export orders within its manufacturing report rose to 62 in May, its highest level since 1988. Nonmanufacturing activity also grew in May at the same pace as it did in April. That growth is an indication that the recovery that began in the manufacturing sector has broadened.

Auto sales rise
U.S. auto sales rose for the seventh month in a row in May on the strength of big gains in most car markets.

U.S. and global corporate news

Fitch and Moody's downgrade BP
On Thursday, both Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investor Services downgraded BP's long-term credit rating one notch. The agencies warned that further downgrades are possible as the company's liability for the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico escalated into billions of dollars and it faced a criminal investigation in the United States.

May same-store sales encouraging
May same-store sales reports were encouraging despite the still uneven nature of the U.S. economic recovery. Costco Wholesale reported that same-store sales rose 9% as net sales climbed 11%. Target's same-store sales rose 1.3% and those at Saks' rose 5.8%. Sales at teen retailers American Eagle Outfitters, Buckle, and Hot Topic all fell more than expected.

Whirlpool recalls dishwashers
Whirlpool announced a recall of 1.7 million dishwashers from its Maytag unit because of a potential fire hazard. Besides Maytag, the brands under the recall include Jenn-Air, Amana, and Crosley.

Anadarko affirms outlook; Lukoil profits double
Even though the company has suspended its deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico in compliance with the U.S. government's six-month ban on drilling in the Gulf, Anadarko Petroleum affirmed its 2010 production, sales volume, and capital spending plans for the year. Russia's largest privately owned producer, OAO Lukoil Holdings, reported that its first-quarter profit more than doubled from a year ago after rising crude prices offset falling production from its western Siberian fields.

Global economic news

Credit default swaps on sovereign bonds surge
Credit default swaps on sovereign bonds surged on speculation that Europe's debt crisis is worsening after Hungary said it is in a grave economic situation after the previous government manipulated figures and lied about the state of the economy.

Bank of Canada hikes rates
Given the strength of its economy, Canada this week became the first G-7 country to raise interest rates. The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight rate by 0.25% to 0.50% but refrained from indicating that this hike was the first in a series.

Kan becomes Japanese prime minister
Naoto Kan took over as Japan 's prime minister this week after lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan elected him premier. Kan , who was finance minister in the last cabinet, said he is working on a new strategy to rein in the world's largest public debt (as a percentage of gross domestic product) and safeguard economic growth ahead of midterm elections next month.

German government agrees to block short-selling
The German government agreed to block the speculative "naked" short-selling of German stocks and eurozone sovereign bonds.Germany shocked European Union partners and markets last month when it first introduced unilateral measures. 

Europe's services and manufacturing slows less than expected
Growth in Europe 's service and manufacturing industries slowed at a pace that was less than initially estimated for May. The growth was welcome news as the outlook for the region's economy has dimmed in recent months with the threat of contagion from the Greek debt crisis raising concerns about the region's future.

Australian exports surge most in three decades
Australian exports, excluding farm goods, surged by the most in almost three decades in April as shipments of iron ore and coal to China pushed the trade balances to a surplus for the first time in 12 months.

Pakistan central bank head quits amid economic strain
Pakistan 's central bank governor Syed Salim Raza resigned Thursday. His departure raises concerns about the nation's economic management at a time when the government is grappling with a shortage of financial resources amid rising war costs.

U.S. economic news for the week ended May 28, 2010

Global stock markets had a rocky week as investors remained wary of Europe's credit problems, tighter financial sector regulation in the United States , rising tensions between North Korea and South Korea , and the possibility that the world recovery could be affected by any of these simmering challenges. On Thursday a three-day selloff turned into a rally after Chinapromised not to unload European debt.

U.S. economic news

U.S. growth revised lower; consumer spending stalls; profit growth slows
The U.S. economy grew 3.0% in the first quarter, less than the earlier 3.2% estimate, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The pace was shown to be a bit weaker than originally thought after the government revised consumer and business spending lower. The numbers indicated that corporate profits grew at a slower pace in the first quarter. Profits before tax and with inventory and capital adjustments rose 5.5% in the first quarter, slower than the 8% rate in the fourth quarter. A separate report on Friday revealed that consumer spending unexpectedly stalled in April as Americans rebuilt savings. Purchases have not increased for the first time since September. Instead, the figures from the Commerce Department showed that the savings rate rose for the first time in four months, and incomes climbed 0.4%.

New unemployment claims fall
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the drop was smaller than expected and did not signal any strong improvement in the labor market.

Home sales soar
Sales of newly built homes soared 14.8% in April from March as buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring government tax credit. Sales in April were 47.8% higher than a year earlier.

Durable goods orders rise
Orders for durable goods rose 2.9% in April from March, putting them 21.6% above the year- earlier level. That was the biggest annual gain since 1976. Orders for goods other than those associated with defense and aircraft fell 2.4% in April from March but were 23.5% higher than a year ago.

U.S. and global corporate news
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on pace to close out its biggest monthly drop since February 2009 and its biggest May drop in history. The selloff snaps three straight months of gains. This month, which included a flash crash, has been very volatile, and we have seen the first major 10% correction in the U.S. stock market since a bull market began more than a year ago.

Apple surpassed Microsoft in market value on Wednesday as its value hit $222.1 billion, about $3 billion ahead of Microsoft. Over the last year, Apple's share price has nearly doubled.

Global economic news
OECD raises growth forecast
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its forecast for economic growth this year and next. That forecast comes despite risks to recovery posed by European debt and possible overheating in some parts of Asia . The Paris-based think tank cited the strong growth in developing economies and rapid rebound in world trade, concluding that the combined output of the organization's 31 members will increase 2.7% this year and 2.8% next year.

U.K. consumer confidence falls
U.K. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a five-month low in May as Britons faced the prospects of government spending cuts and became more pessimistic about the economic outlook.

Japan's jobless rate rises; household spending falls; and deflation deepens
Japan 's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in April to 5.1% from 5.0%. During the same month, household spending fell and deflation deepened, signaling that domestic demand is damping the economic recovery. Other figures this week highlighted the country's continued dependence on exports to fuel recovery. Demand from Asia's emerging market countries helped Japan 's rise more than expected in April. Shipments abroad rose 40.4% from a year earlier, the fifth straight increase.

European stocks recover after China denies sale of European bond holdings
European stocks and the euro rose Thursday after China denied it was considering the sale of European bond holdings. On Thursday China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the agency that manages the nation's massive reserves, said it had no plans to dump its eurozone government bond holdings, refuting a news report that it was considering such a move amid the region's fiscal problems. 

U.S. economic news for the week ended May 21, 2010

Around the world, stock markets tumbled this week as concern mounted that Europe 's inability to contain its debt crisis would slow the global economic recovery. The rout began on Wednesday after Germany, in a unilateral move, announced a partial ban on naked short selling — the selling of securities that are not owned or borrowed — and gained strength as plans for spending cuts by Europe’s most indebted nations and proposals to tighten U.S. financial industry regulation shook investor confidence.

As risk aversion mounted and investors fled to safer securities, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped to its lowest level of the year. The Chicago Board Options SPX Volatility Index, considered Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to a 13-month high. European and Asian stock markets fell to respective eight- and nine-month lows. The euro fell to a four-year low, prompting U.S. and European officials to begin discussions on currency market intervention, and the London interbank offered rate, or LIBOR, rose to the highest level in almost 10 months as the sovereign debt crisis made institutions reluctant to lend.

As of May 19, investors had withdrawn some $12 billion from U.S. and European equity funds, according to research firm EPFR Global, and as of Thursday, the plunge in global equities had wiped out $5.3 trillion of market value. 

U.S. economic news

Inflation hits 44-year low
In April, U.S. inflation slid to its lowest level in 44 years. This is the latest sign that high unemployment and excess production capacity are holding down wages and prices.
Senate approves financial overhaul

The U.S. Senate approved a sweeping overhaul of the financial services sector that would restrict the actions of banks and other financial firms. The measure must now be reconciled with the bill passed by the House of Representatives.

Weak data drive stocks lower
On Thursday stocks were dragged lower by news that U.S. jobless claims had unexpectedly increased 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, exceeding expectations and the highest level in a month. A drop in the Conference Board's index of leading indicators added to the selloff. That index fell 0.1% after a sharp decline in building permits.

U.S. and global corporate news

Wal-Mart, Home Depot post results
Wal-Mart reported its fourth consecutive quarter of sluggish U.S. sales but still managed to post a 10% profit increase for the quarter ended April 30 amid tighter expense controls and strong international sales.

Home Depot's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose a more-than-expected 41% as improved profitability and strength in products tied to simple repairs and the outdoors helped results. The company boosted its current-year sales and earnings forecasts.
Global economic news

Germany approves share of bailout
The German lower house of parliament approved the country’s share of a $1 trillion lending package to ease Europe ’s debt woes.

UK posts largest budget deficit on record
In April, the United Kingdom posted its largest monthly budget deficit since recordkeeping began in 1993. The report opens the way for what economists say will be some of the sharpest cuts in public spending in a generation. The newly appointedChancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, has ordered departments to find £6 billion of savings this year.

France calls for tougher rules on deficits; Japan 's economy grows 1.2%
France joined Germany in calling for tougher rules to prevent large government deficits and said it would work together on measures to stabilize the eurozone.

Japan 's economy grew 1.2% in the first quarter, but a sustained and full recovery still depends on continued demand for the country's exports.

Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The views expressed here are those of MFS® and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS investment product. Individual securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times.

U.S. economic news for the week ended May 14, 2010

Throughout the week, markets continued to assess the merits of the $1 trillion European bailout plan. Stocks fluctuated globally, retreating from the highs hit after the announcement of the aid package. The euro fell against the dollar to its lowest level since November 2008, as investors piled into gold. The precious metal, which is viewed as a safe haven, rose to record highs this week as Europeans worried about the value and possible breakup of their currency.

U.S. economic news

Data keep focus on U.S. recovery
The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits dropped for the fourth week in a row as the economy expanded and employers retain more workers. Claims fell by a more-than-expected 4,000, to 444,000, for the week ended May 8.
The U.S. trade gap widened 2.5% to $40 billion in March from February. The deficit hit its highest level since December 2008 as both imports and exports surged. Also during March, exports rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted $147.9 billion, while imports increased 3.1% to $188.3 billion.

Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, but economists say some of the demand may have been driven by the government homebuyers' tax credit, that expired at the end of April.

U.S. global and corporate news

Senate votes to curb rating agency independence
The U.S. Senate voted to establish a government-appointed panel to decide who should rate individual asset-backed securities.Al Franken, a Democratic senator from Minnesota , proposed the amendment to the financial regulation bill. The amendment was approved by a 64 to 35 vote as some Republicans backed the move.

Technology stocks rally
Cisco posted a 63% jump in quarterly profit. The earnings report sparked a rally among tech stocks amid evidence that a rebound in corporate technology spending is gaining momentum. International Business Machines issued an upbeat profit forecast for the coming years, and European software giant SAP announced plans to buy Sybase. Intel said sales of chips would double over the next few years.

Disney's profit rose 55% on fewer restructuring charges and ticket sales of Alice in Wonderland, which has grossed $962 million world-wide. The outlook for the company's theme park business remained weak.

Toyota announced a surprise fiscal fourth-quarter profit and forecast a 48% earnings increase for the current fiscal year as it attempts to boost sales in Asia and cut costs. The gains come as a surprise after the company posted a net loss in the same period a year earlier. The forecast is seen as a sign that Toyota 's recall of more than 8.5 million vehicles is not likely to stunt its recovery.

Global economic news

Europe unveils aid package as Spain and Portugal pledge austerity
On Sunday the European Union unveiled an almost $1 trillion financial-aid package, including a plan to buy government and private debt, after downgrades of Greece, Spain, and Portugal made investors wary of investing in the region.

Days after the announcement of the bailout package Spain and Portugal announced new austerity measures to shore up investor confidence and avoid a Greek-style crisis.
The eurozone economy expanded 0.8% in the first quarter. This is the third quarter of post-recession expansion. While growth in the region still trails that of the United States , it is significant that the debt crisis gripping the eurozone has not stalled its growth.

Greek unemployment rose to 12.1% in February, from 11.3% in January. Economists in the country now worry that the new austerity measures will drive the rate even higher than forecast. The International Monetary Fund said it expects unemployment to climb to 14.6% this year before peaking at 14.8% in 2012. The European Commission has predicted that Greek unemployment will rise to 11.8% this year, from 9.5% in 2009.

U.K. Conservatives and Liberal Democrats form coalition government
After last week's inconclusive election results in the United Kingdom , Conservatives, led by David Cameron, and Liberal Democrats, under Nick Clegg, forged the country's first coalition government in 65 years. Under the coalition Cameron will be Prime Minster and Clegg the Deputy Prime Minister. Cameron's cabinet met for the first time and articulated the need for immediate action to cut Britain 's record fiscal deficit. Conservative George Osborne, named Chancellor of the Exchequer, affirmed that he will move toward fast and lasting structural reform. The cabinet agreed that ministers will be paid 5% less than they were in Gordon Brown's government and that ministerial pay will be frozen for the duration of this Parliament. That will save about £3 million over the five-year term.

China's stocks fall into bear territory
China 's Shanghai Composite Index fell into "bear" territory this week amid concern that the country's overheated economy may lead to property bubbles, an excessive tightening of monetary policy, and a damaging economic slowdown.

Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The views expressed here are those of MFS® and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS investment product. Individual securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times.