Friday, May 7, 2010

U.S. economic news for the week ended May 7, 2010

Note from Fergerson Financial LLC:  
During the week, markets were down 8% to 10% depending upon the index (Dow, S&P, Russell 2000, MSCI, etc…). Currently, there is a drag on the market due to the Greece debt problem and to market worries that it will spread to other European countries. There is also positive news around economic growth during the first quarter of 2010 and numerous positive corporate earning reports. Please keep in mind that the market ebbs and flows depending upon many factors which we can not control. What can be controlled is to make sure portfolios are managed according to your risk, time horizon, financial situation and short and long term goals.

Thank you for your business…Rick
                       
Fallout from Greece ’s debt crisis continued to roil world financial markets this week. Stocks plunged as fears of contagion from Greece grew. The euro fell to its lowest level in 14 months as investors worried about rising debt levels in Portugal and Spain as well as Greece . It was almost impossible to escape the global impact of Greece ’s debt crisis, which caused the euro to fall against the U.S. dollar and other currencies.

The U.S. dollar’s relative strength led to a decline in the price of gold after it had rallied as a safe-haven asset for investors to hedge risk during a crisis. Investors also were drawn to U.S. Treasuries and German bonds. The yield on Greece ’s 10-year note rose to 12.76%, a record 966-basis-point premium over the 10-year German bond yield. Crude-oil futures fell below $77 per barrel, from $87 per barrel on Monday, and their lowest level in two months.

On Thursday, Greece agreed to austerity measures as required by an aid package worth 110 billion euros ($140 billion) from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The Bank of Japan responded to the crisis by injecting 2 trillion yen ($22 billion) in funds to financial institutions to ease liquidity and stabilize markets. On Friday, the German parliament approved the Greek bailout package. Later Friday, finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations were to hold a conference call to discuss a potential Grecian financial formula.

In the United States , a series of positive economic reports, including a much-better-than-expected gain of 290,000 jobs in April released Friday morning by the U.S. Department of Labor, stood in sharp contrast to the European worries. However, by then global markets had plummeted to one of their worst weekly performances ever. In the first four days of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.4%, the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was off by 5.0%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index had retreated 7.2%. U.S. markets opened lower on Friday.

Both the Dow Jones Global and Europe ’s Stoxx 600 indices fell 7% or more during the week while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 8.8%. Bloomberg reported that the Stoxx 600 fell 12% from its April 15 peak.

On Thursday afternoon, investors were shocked by a jaw-dropping plummet of almost 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which went into a freefall for about 15 minutes. The fallout from Greece was exacerbated by high-frequency automated trading, which typically accounts for more than half of its daily volume.

U.S. employers added 290,000 jobs in April
The United States experienced its fastest pace of job growth in four years, according to a report from the U.S. Labor Department released on Friday morning. The nonfarm payroll increase of 290,000 easily surpassed the consensus economists’ estimate of a 180,000-job gain. It came after an upwardly revised increase of 230,000 jobs in March. However, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.9% in April. Over the past two years, the U.S. economy has lost 8.5 million jobs.
Signs of economic rebound grow

A variety of reports gave positive indications regarding the direction of the U.S. economy. Private sector jobs grew by 32,000, according to a report released on Wednesday by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Macroeconomic Advisers. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 7,000 to 444,000 in the week ended May 1, the Labor Department reported. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 458,500 from 463,250.

Factory orders rose by 1.3% in March, more than twice as much as had been estimated, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported. The overall index for manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management reached 60.4 in April, up from 59.6 in March. Any number above 50 shows expansion. Productivity continued to improve. Nonfarmlabor productivity rose by 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, the U.S. Labor Department reported. Business leaders reflected the sunnier outlook as well. A survey of CEOs by the Business Council and Conference Board pegged overall business confidence at 66.6 in May, up from 64.7 in February, and far above the mark of 50 from a year earlier.

U.S. and global corporate news

Beazer Homes profit up
Homebuilder Beazer Homes posted a profit for the third consecutive quarter, a positive signal for a housing recovery. Its orders rose 49% and it had a lower cancellation rate, aided by improved home affordability, more stable prices, low interest rates, and improved liquidity.
Freddie Mac loses $8 billion, asks for $10.6 billion more

After a first-quarter loss of $8 billion, Freddie Mac, which is now effectively owned by the U.S. government, asked for $10.6 billion in additional aid, bringing the total taxpayer bill for rescuing the mortgage guarantee firm to $61.3 billion.

Financial firms post profits
Further signs of an economic turnaround came from several financial firms, which posted profits. Swiss giant UBSreported its highest quarterly profit in three years, as it turned a year-earlier loss of 1.98 billion Swiss francs to a net income of 2.2 billion Swiss francs in this year’s first quarter. The biggest contributor was a rebound in debt trading.Marsh & McLennan, one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, had a 41% increase in first-quarter earnings, largely due to a rebound in its consulting business. Credit card-issuer MasterCard beat analysts' expectations in achieving a 24% increase in its first-quarter profit, as higher payment processing reflected increased consumer spending.

Global economic news

UK election casts more uncertainty
While Greece , Portugal , and Spain occupied much attention, the United Kingdom shared the European spotlight. The U.K. election, which appears to have produced a minority Conservative government or a coalition, added to existing concerns.

Earlier in the week, the European Commission said that the U.K. government would borrow 12% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in calendar 2010, above Greece ’s and Ireland ’s respective debt levels of 9.3% and 11.7% of GDP. The commission forecasts U.K. economic growth of 1.2% this year and 2.1% in 2011 after a 4.9% contraction in 2009. A more positive report, released on Tuesday, showed the UK ’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than 15 years in April, largely due to record-high export orders and weakness in the British sterling.


Inflation a concern in Asia
As Europe tries to limit damage from sovereign debt, Asian markets are focused on rapidly rising prices as the region’s economic recovery far surpasses that of the West. Australia reported a 4.8% rise in prices in the first quarter of 2010. South Korea reported a 2.6% rise in its consumer price index in April from a year earlier, while Indonesian and Thai consumer prices rose 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively, from a year earlier. Although these price rises are not alarming, The Wall Street Journal reported that Asian economies are running at or near capacity and the rise in prices makes tighter monetary policy more likely.
Stay focused and diversified

In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

U.S. economic news for the week ended April 30, 2010

U.S. economy grows, and inflation remains tame
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% pace in the first quarter as consumer spending rose the most in three years, according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The same report showed that the U.S. Federal ReserveBoard's preferred measure of inflation climbed at the slowest pace on record. Tame inflation led the Fed this week to keep interest rates unchanged and to reaffirm its intention to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period. The central bank also moderately upgraded its assessment of the economy.

Home prices and mortgage applications fall
Home prices slipped for the fifth straight month in February as many markets remained under pressure from foreclosures and high inventories. Overall, mortgage applications slipped 2.9% last week, while requests to purchase homes rose 7.4%, as a looming deadline for homebuyer tax credits boosted purchased for a fifth time in six weeks. Applications were still down 24% from a year ago, while applications to refinance fell 8.8% amid an increase in mortgage rates.

Consumer confidence rises
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 57.9 for April, from 52.3 in March, an increase that brought it to the highest level since September 2008. The index still remains well below pre-recession levels.

U.S. and global corporate news

Moody's downgrades nine Greek banks
On Friday Moody's Investors Service downgraded its ratings on nine Greek banks as the country's debt crisis took its toll on financial institutions. Among the banks downgraded are the National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, EmporikiBank of Greece, EFG Eurobank Ergasias, Piraeus Bank, Agricultural Bank of Greece, General Bank of Greece, Marfin Egnatia Bank, and Attica Bank.

WSJ reports Goldman under criminal investigation
The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the probe, reported on Friday that federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether Goldman Sachs Group, or its employees, committed securities fraud in connection with the firm's mortgage trading.

Oil companies book profits as oil costs rise
Exxon Mobil posted a smaller-than-expected gain in the first quarter after health care legislation increased costs and U.S. refineries operated at a loss. Corporate expenses rose by $364 million from a year earlier because of higher health-care costs stemming from U.S. reform legislation passed last month. Net income rose 38%. Royal Dutch Shell booked a 57% rise in first-quarter profit amid higher oil prices and an increase in natural gas output. Revenue rose 48%.Occidental Petroleum's first-quarter earnings nearly tripled as the company benefited from stronger prices and cost cutting.

Ford Motor reported a better-than-expected $2.1 billion profit for the first quarter, fueled by the firm's rising U.S. sales and market share.

Hewlett-Packard agreed to buy Palm for about $1 billion in cash. The move will give HP a greater presence in thesmartphone market.

Global economic news

Greece agrees to austerity measures in effort to seal aid deal
As the Greek crisis continued to unfold, this week Greece agreed to austerity measures, expected to cut about $30 billion from its budget, as a precondition for financial assistance. The measures will range from a pension overhaul to wage cuts and they come after weeks of negotiations between the IMF and Greece . However, Greek labor unions have vowed to fight the spending cuts. The agreements follows a week of turmoil in which S&P downgraded the debt of Greece , Spain , and Portugal . S&P cut Spain 's rating to "AA" and said in a statement that its outlook for the country's debt was negative, suggesting the possibility of future downgrade if Spain cannot resolve its budget problems.

Despite turmoil, Albania vows to proceed with debt offering
With its neighbor to the south embroiled in financial turmoil and investors reeling from emerging market debt, Albania announced that it would push on with its first sales of Eurobonds. Albania, a nation once rated the poorest country inEurope and where remittances from abroard account for about one sixth of the economy, has the same S&P "B+" rating as Belarus, Nigeria, and Senegal. The bond sale will proceed even as emerging market borrowing costs are surging the most they have in a year. That surge has prompted the Czech Republic to delay its planned sale of bonds.

Russia cuts rates
Russia 's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the thirteenth time in a year amid an unsteady economic recovery in the country. It cut the rate a quarter of a percentage point to a record low of 8%. The bank has come under political pressure to keep rates low in an effort to boost lending and contain ruble appreciation.

IMF ups expectations for Asia growth
The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it expects Asia's economic growth this year and next to be slightly higher than its recent estimates because of an upward revision in Singapore 's forecasts. The IMF, however, urged Asian policymakers to guard against potential bubbles in local asset markets.

Spain's unemployment rate tops 20%
Spain 's unemployment rate breached 20% in the first quarter as the economy continued to shed jobs. The country is reeling from the collapse of a decade-long construction boom. The unemployment rate is the highest in the developed world.

Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that yourfinancial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

The views expressed here are those of MFS® and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS investment product. Individual securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.

Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times.

U.S. economic news for the week ended April 23, 2010

U.S. and global corporate news
Questions about the fraud lawsuit filed against Goldman Sachs overshadowed the company's announcement that its profits soared 91% in the first quarter. The gain was the second-highest quarterly profit in the company's 141-year history and was powered by the strongest net revenue ever in Goldman's fixed-income, currency, and commodities operations.

Morgan Stanley posted a profit in the first quarter thanks to strong bond trading and increased client activity. The investment bank reported a $1.78 billion profit, versus a $177 million loss in the year-ago period.
In the first quarter, Apple's profit surged 90% and revenue rose 49%. The company said the results were driven by the company shipping more than twice as many iPhones as it did a year ago.

Toyota Motor's credit rating was cut by Moody's Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings said it may also downgrade the company as recalls of more than 8 million vehicles hurt profit. The rating was reduced to "Aa2" from "Aa1."

Verizon Communications posted a 29% decline in its first-quarter earnings because of a charge related to the health care bill and because the telecommunications provider had to rely on lower-end customers to keep growth going in its wireless business.

Global economic news
Greece asks for aid after bond yields soarGreece requested that its financial lifeline be activated this week after bond yields soared to what Prime Minister George Papandreou called unsustainable levels. The high rates have been undermining Greece's efforts to cut a budget deficit of more than four times the European Union limit. The lifeline combines as much as $60 billion in loans for the year. Greek bond yields soared this week after the EU said Greece's budget deficit was worse than previously forecast and Moody's Investor Servicecut the country's creditworthiness. Eurostat, the EU's statistics office reported Thursday that Greece's deficit was 13.6% of gross domestic product in 2009 and may be revised to as high as 14.1% because of "uncertainties" about Greek economic data.

IMF urges governments to tax financial institutionsThe International Monetary Fund advised the Group of 20 nations to tax the balance sheets, profits, and compensation of financial institutions to reduce the chances of another financial crisis and pay for the costs if one occurs.

U.K. economy weaker than expectedThe U.K. economy grew half as much as forecast in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose 0.2%.

Europe's services and manufacturing industries expand
Europe's services and manufacturing industries expanded more than expected in April as an export-led recovery prompted companies to step up production. A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers in both industries rose to 57.3, the highest level since August 2007, from 55.9 in March.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times.