The worlds focus remained fixed on the Middle East this week, with investor anxiety rising as violence escalated in Libya, the third-largest oil producer in Africa. Oil prices rose and currencies of countries reliant on oil exports, including Indias rupee and South Koreas won, fell. Stock markets gave back recent gains on fears unrest could spread to larger oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia or Iran.
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than had been estimated for the fourth quarter of 2010. However, other economic reports were encouraging, including lower first-time U.S. jobless claims and rising consumer confidence in the eurozone and United States. Corporate profits rose as well. Particularly noteworthy was General Motors, which reached a major milestone by posting an annual profit just two years after almost collapsing under the weight of its debt.
While major stock indices fell almost universally this week on fears of a potentially widespread economic setback from oil interruptions and soaring prices, the price rose for U.S. Treasuries, a classic safe-haven asset.
Global economic news
Oil futures crest at $100 a barrel
Crude oil prices reached their highest levels in more than two years as a result of growing violence and oil supply disruptions in Libya. Oil futures in London hit $120 a barrel on Thursday before receding to $112. The April contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded above $103 a barrel on Thursday before retreating below $98. Prices stabilized after Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the International Energy Agency reassured markets that global supplies would be sufficient, even without Libya's production. Just last week, oil had traded in the range of $86 to $87 a barrel.
U.S. economy grows, but shy of the 3.2% forecast
U.S. real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, below the estimate of 3.2%, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported. Real GDP increased 2.6% in the third quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investments contributed to growth, while personal inventory investment and state and local government spending detracted. Imports, which are deducted from GDP, decreased. Overall, the 2.8% growth figure is consistent with forecasts of a slow-growth economic recovery.
First-time U.S. jobless claims decrease again
U.S. initial jobless claims declined for the third time in four weeks, and the four-week average dipped to its lowest level in two and a half years, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. For the week ending February 19, first-time unemployment claims dropped by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 391,000. The four-week average fell to 402,000.
U.S. new home sales fall more than expected
Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in January, slipping 13% to a pace of 284,000 a year, according to a report from the Commerce Department. Tight credit standards and 9% unemployment are weighing down home construction. However, mortgage rates fell to 4.95% for a 30-year mortgage, a result of the drop in Treasury yields, as investor demand for safe-haven assets rose. Lower rates could help stimulate home sales.
Eurozone confidence rises
Economic confidence within the eurozone, as measured by the European Commissions Economic Sentiment Indicator, rose to 107.8 from 106.8 in January, its highest reading since September 2007.
U.S. consumer confidence climbs
Consumer confidence in the United States rebounded to its highest level since April 2008, based on the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Indexs -39.2 reading in the week ended February 20, up from -43.4 the previous week.
Global corporate news
GM posts first profit in six years
General Motors earned $4.7 billion in 2010, its best annual performance in more than a decade and its first yearly profit since 2004. GMs global sales rose 12.2% in 2010, to 8.39 million. It sold just 30,000 fewer vehicles than Toyota, the automaker that a year ago displaced GM as the worlds largest.
Boeing lands $35 billion government contract
The U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a $35 billion contract to build aerial refueling tankers, preserving Boeings longstanding position as a leading Air Force supplier.
RBS registers small quarterly profit
Royal Bank of Scotland posted a modest profit in the fourth quarter of 2010 and reduced its annual loss to 1.13 billion from 3.6 billion pounds in 2009. Net profit for the fourth quarter was 12 million pounds. The banks net interest margin rose while income at its investment banking division fell substantially.
Allianz increases earnings, raises dividend
Allianz, Europes largest insurer by gross premium income, reported an 11% increase in fourth-quarter net profit on improvements in its property and casualty business, higher revenues, and fewer natural-disaster claims.
European telecom giants stumble
Spanish telecommunications giant Telefonica posted a 45% drop in fourth-quarter net profit because of sharply higher operating costs, while Deutsche Telekoms loss deepened as a result of steeper impairment and restructuring charges (400 million) in 2010.
Toyota recalls 2.2 million vehicles
Toyota announced a recall of 2.2 million vehicles over the much-publicized sticky-accelerator pedal problem, which has caused pedals to become trapped under floor mats because of faulty design.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
U.S. Economic News Week Ending Febuary 18, 2011
Despite ongoing unrest in the Middle East, global financial markets enjoyed a strong week overall. Pushing markets higher were more signs of an increasingly healthy U.S. economy, an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report indicating widespread global economic growth, and substantial profits posted by large European banks, mining giants, and other multinationals.
While investors around the world are closely monitoring Middle East tensions, for now the impact is confined to demonstrations and some street violence in Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya. Potential confrontations this weekend loomed in Iran, Iraq, Algeria, and Tunisia. In Egypt, banks were shuttered this week because of labor unrest. The Egyptian stock market will remain closed until next Monday at the earliest. The presence of Iranian warships in the Suez Canal led investors back to safe-haven assets. Crude oil prices rose slightly during the week, to around $87 per barrel.
It has been a strong quarter overall for stock earnings. Of the first 387 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index that have reported quarterly earnings since January 10, 72% have beaten analysts’ expectations, and per-share earnings are up 35% overall from a year ago, Bloomberg reported.
Global economic news
U.S. inflation still tame
Wholesale prices in the United States rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% from December to January, the U.S. Department of Labor said. However, core inflation, stripping out food and energy prices, was up just 0.5%. Year over year, the core index of producer prices increased 1.6%. U.S. consumer prices rose more modestly in January, by 0.4%, and just 0.2% excluding food and energy. For the year, consumer prices rose 1.6% before seasonal adjustments, and core inflation was 1.0%, below the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s 2.0% target.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies drop
Fewer U.S. households were behind on mortgage payments at year-end than at any time in the past two years. Nearly 12.9% of homes — 6 million households — were 30 days or more past due or in foreclosure at the end of December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association quarterly survey. This figure represents a decrease of 14% from one year ago but is higher than the 11% delinquency rate of two years ago.
Leading U.S. regional manufacturing index has best month in seven years
Manufacturers in the mid-Atlantic area had their strongest monthly showing since January 2004, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general business activity index, which rose to 35.9 in February from 19.3 in January. The report, which is seen as an economic bellwether, is in keeping with other regional surveys of manufacturing activity.
U.S. deficit projected to reach $1.65 trillion
The White House projects the U.S. federal deficit will reach a record $1.65 trillion this fiscal year. However, the administration also forecasts that the deficit will decline to $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and shrink to $627 billion by 2017, or to 3% from 10.8% this year.
German producer prices rise sharply
Producer prices in Germany rose 1.2% in January and 5.7% from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office reported. Energy prices rose 2.3% for the month and 9.3% for the year.
OECD indicators point to global growth
Most developed economies will continue to grow in the coming months, predicts the OECD. Its leading indicator of economic activity in the 33 member countries rose to 102.8 in December from 102.5 in November. Growth was projected to be highest in Germany, Japan, and the United States, with Italy and China heading for a decline.
U.S. jobless claims rise
After reaching a two-year low in initial claims for unemployment benefits the previous week, the number of American workers filing new claims rose last week, by 25,000 to 410,000, the Labor Department reported. The four-week average of new claims rose to 417,750.
China overtakes Japan as number-two global economy
China officially overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, according to figures from both governments. China’s gross domestic product reached $5.88 trillion last year, an annual growth rate of 9.8%, surpassing the showing of Japan’s $5.47-trillion economy. Both economies are far behind the United States’ 2010 GDP of $14.66 trillion.
Chinese trade surplus shrinks in January
China’s trade surplus fell to $6.45 billion in January from $13.1 billion in December, according to customs data. Although China’s exports rose 38% from a year earlier, imports were up 51%, reflecting robust domestic demand within the world’s most populous country and supporting a 10% annual economic growth rate.
Global corporate news
European financial firms in solid standing
Reports from European large financial firms were encouraging. London-based Barclays’ annual earnings were 36% higher than a year earlier. Dutch financial services company ING returned to a profit in the fourth quarter, on strong performance by its banking business, which enjoyed higher interest rate margins and lower loan losses than a year earlier. French lender Société Générale reported a fourth-quarter net profit almost four times higher than a year earlier on strength in retail banking, a recovery by its corporate investment bank, and smaller provisions against bad loans.
Megacorporations post large profits, reflecting recovery
Swiss food-making giant Nestlé tripled its 2010 net profit from a year earlier, helped by the sale of its eye-care unit and a growth in sales in emerging markets and its nutrition division.
Swiss electrical engineering firm ABB posted a 30% growth in fourth-quarter net profit. Sales rose 5% and orders, reflecting future revenue growth, increased 17%.
Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton netted a 72% growth in profits in the first half of its fiscal year, benefiting from strong demand in China and other rapidly growing regions of the world. BHP is a leading producer of coking coal that is used in steelmaking, copper, iron ore, nickel, and silver.
Anglo American, another massive mining company, reported that its annual profit nearly tripled, as demand and prices increased for its commodities — platinum, copper, nickel, coal, and iron ore.
Growth propels John Deere into higher gear
Deere & Company more than doubled its first-quarter profit from a year ago on strong sales of farm and construction machinery. The world’s largest farm equipment manufacturer beat quarterly analyst expectations and raised its sales and profit forecasts for the fiscal year.
Sanofi to buy Genzyme
France’s Sanofi-Aventis has agreed to purchase Genzyme for more than $20 billion. The acquisition gives Sanofi a dedicated U.S. research team with better ties to other U.S. researchers in the biotechnology industry and academic world.
While investors around the world are closely monitoring Middle East tensions, for now the impact is confined to demonstrations and some street violence in Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya. Potential confrontations this weekend loomed in Iran, Iraq, Algeria, and Tunisia. In Egypt, banks were shuttered this week because of labor unrest. The Egyptian stock market will remain closed until next Monday at the earliest. The presence of Iranian warships in the Suez Canal led investors back to safe-haven assets. Crude oil prices rose slightly during the week, to around $87 per barrel.
It has been a strong quarter overall for stock earnings. Of the first 387 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index that have reported quarterly earnings since January 10, 72% have beaten analysts’ expectations, and per-share earnings are up 35% overall from a year ago, Bloomberg reported.
Global economic news
U.S. inflation still tame
Wholesale prices in the United States rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% from December to January, the U.S. Department of Labor said. However, core inflation, stripping out food and energy prices, was up just 0.5%. Year over year, the core index of producer prices increased 1.6%. U.S. consumer prices rose more modestly in January, by 0.4%, and just 0.2% excluding food and energy. For the year, consumer prices rose 1.6% before seasonal adjustments, and core inflation was 1.0%, below the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s 2.0% target.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies drop
Fewer U.S. households were behind on mortgage payments at year-end than at any time in the past two years. Nearly 12.9% of homes — 6 million households — were 30 days or more past due or in foreclosure at the end of December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association quarterly survey. This figure represents a decrease of 14% from one year ago but is higher than the 11% delinquency rate of two years ago.
Leading U.S. regional manufacturing index has best month in seven years
Manufacturers in the mid-Atlantic area had their strongest monthly showing since January 2004, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general business activity index, which rose to 35.9 in February from 19.3 in January. The report, which is seen as an economic bellwether, is in keeping with other regional surveys of manufacturing activity.
U.S. deficit projected to reach $1.65 trillion
The White House projects the U.S. federal deficit will reach a record $1.65 trillion this fiscal year. However, the administration also forecasts that the deficit will decline to $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and shrink to $627 billion by 2017, or to 3% from 10.8% this year.
German producer prices rise sharply
Producer prices in Germany rose 1.2% in January and 5.7% from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office reported. Energy prices rose 2.3% for the month and 9.3% for the year.
OECD indicators point to global growth
Most developed economies will continue to grow in the coming months, predicts the OECD. Its leading indicator of economic activity in the 33 member countries rose to 102.8 in December from 102.5 in November. Growth was projected to be highest in Germany, Japan, and the United States, with Italy and China heading for a decline.
U.S. jobless claims rise
After reaching a two-year low in initial claims for unemployment benefits the previous week, the number of American workers filing new claims rose last week, by 25,000 to 410,000, the Labor Department reported. The four-week average of new claims rose to 417,750.
China overtakes Japan as number-two global economy
China officially overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, according to figures from both governments. China’s gross domestic product reached $5.88 trillion last year, an annual growth rate of 9.8%, surpassing the showing of Japan’s $5.47-trillion economy. Both economies are far behind the United States’ 2010 GDP of $14.66 trillion.
Chinese trade surplus shrinks in January
China’s trade surplus fell to $6.45 billion in January from $13.1 billion in December, according to customs data. Although China’s exports rose 38% from a year earlier, imports were up 51%, reflecting robust domestic demand within the world’s most populous country and supporting a 10% annual economic growth rate.
Global corporate news
European financial firms in solid standing
Reports from European large financial firms were encouraging. London-based Barclays’ annual earnings were 36% higher than a year earlier. Dutch financial services company ING returned to a profit in the fourth quarter, on strong performance by its banking business, which enjoyed higher interest rate margins and lower loan losses than a year earlier. French lender Société Générale reported a fourth-quarter net profit almost four times higher than a year earlier on strength in retail banking, a recovery by its corporate investment bank, and smaller provisions against bad loans.
Megacorporations post large profits, reflecting recovery
Swiss food-making giant Nestlé tripled its 2010 net profit from a year earlier, helped by the sale of its eye-care unit and a growth in sales in emerging markets and its nutrition division.
Swiss electrical engineering firm ABB posted a 30% growth in fourth-quarter net profit. Sales rose 5% and orders, reflecting future revenue growth, increased 17%.
Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton netted a 72% growth in profits in the first half of its fiscal year, benefiting from strong demand in China and other rapidly growing regions of the world. BHP is a leading producer of coking coal that is used in steelmaking, copper, iron ore, nickel, and silver.
Anglo American, another massive mining company, reported that its annual profit nearly tripled, as demand and prices increased for its commodities — platinum, copper, nickel, coal, and iron ore.
Growth propels John Deere into higher gear
Deere & Company more than doubled its first-quarter profit from a year ago on strong sales of farm and construction machinery. The world’s largest farm equipment manufacturer beat quarterly analyst expectations and raised its sales and profit forecasts for the fiscal year.
Sanofi to buy Genzyme
France’s Sanofi-Aventis has agreed to purchase Genzyme for more than $20 billion. The acquisition gives Sanofi a dedicated U.S. research team with better ties to other U.S. researchers in the biotechnology industry and academic world.
Friday, February 11, 2011
U.S. Economic News Week Ending Febuary 11, 2011
Protestors cheered, and investors breathed an initial sigh of relief Friday when embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gave in to protestor demands and resigned from office. The departure turned the weeks of protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square into celebrations. The army will now take control of the country. The past three weeks of demonstrations caused some worried investors to seek safety in what has come to be known as the "risk off" trade. The U.S. dollar and Treasuries gained, and Brent crude prices hovered above $100 per barrel, amid speculation that the unrest may curb oil flows through Egypt's Suez Canal.
The crisis, combined with some disappointing earnings news from technology bellwether Cisco Systems, forced the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower for the first time in nine days on Thursday. That was one day after the blue chip index hit a 30-month high. The tensions in the Middle East and worries about faster inflation in the emerging world sparked the biggest losses in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since November.
Global economic news
China raises rates again
Policymakers in emerging market countries continued to raise interest rates this week to fight accelerating inflation. China raised its lending and deposit rates for a third time in four months. The Bank of Korea, however, surprised markets and opted to keep its key lending rate on hold at 2.75%. Last week, the Bank of Indonesia increased borrowing costs for the first time in more than two years. Speculation that policymakers will take further steps to curb inflation has weighed on stocks in the region.
BOE keep stimulus in place
The Bank of England maintained its emergency stimulus measures and held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5%.
U.S. jobless claims fall
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Claims dropped 36,000 to 383,000 in the week ended February 5. It was the lowest reading since July 2008 and points to the continued improvement in the job market as the economy picks up speed.
U.S. consumer confidence picks up
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer confidence for the month showed confidence among U.S. investors increased to the highest level in eight months.
U.S. trade gap widens
The U.S. trade gap widened 5.9% in December, and the full-year gap gained the most in 10 years. Imports rose 2.6%, and exports grew 1.8%, with both categories hitting levels not seen in over two years.
U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly declined in December
Manufacturing activity fell as economic activity was hampered by the coldest weather seen in a century. Factory output declined for the first time since April, falling 0.1% from November.
Global corporate news
Takeover deals dominate corporate news
The Deutsche Börse announced this week that it is in talks to buy the New York Stock Exchange in a deal valued at almost $10 billion. Meanwhile, the London Stock Exchange made a $3.1 billion bid for TMX Group. The week began with news that AOL would buy the Huffington Post for $315 million. In a merger that would step up consolidation in the offshore oil drilling industry, Ensco agreed to buy Pride International for $7.3 billion. Looking to gain a stronger foothold in the diagnostics industry, Danaher said it would buy Beckman Coulter for $5.87 billion. Kindred Healthcare disclosed it would acquire RehabCare for about $1.3 million in the latest health care deal driven by cost cutting. Overall, analysts say the trend reflects increased corporate confidence and economic recovery.
Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
In what is being billed as a major strategy shift for the handset maker, Nokia said it will adopt Windows Phone as its main smartphone platform. The move is part of Nokia's broad strategic partnership with Microsoft.
Cisco disappoints
Technology bellwether Cisco Systems disappointed investors this week as it announced its profits fell 18%; the company also reported its fourth consecutive quarterly decline in margins. Both were viewed as sign of growing competitive pressures in Cisco's core network switching business.
Credit Suisse hit by tougher regulations, capital requirements
Credit Suisse Group reported that its fourth-quarter net income rose a less-than-expected 6%. The company, which is Switzerland's second-largest bank, cut its 2010 dividend as well as future profit targets, saying that tougher regulations and capital requirements will likely cut into its bottom line in years to come.
Other profit news mixed
PepsiCo reported a 5% drop in its fourth-quarter profit and cut its earnings outlook, saying it faces headwinds from high unemployment, cost inflation, and a potentially tough pricing environment. Allstate, the largest publicly traded home and auto insurer in the United States said fourth-quarter profit fell 43% because of an increase in disaster claims. Sprint Nextel's fourth-quarter loss narrowed slightly, and Whole Foods lifted its 2011 forecasts for profits and sales. Kraft Foods' net income fell 24% amid higher costs for meat, packaging and other inputs.
The crisis, combined with some disappointing earnings news from technology bellwether Cisco Systems, forced the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower for the first time in nine days on Thursday. That was one day after the blue chip index hit a 30-month high. The tensions in the Middle East and worries about faster inflation in the emerging world sparked the biggest losses in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since November.
Global economic news
China raises rates again
Policymakers in emerging market countries continued to raise interest rates this week to fight accelerating inflation. China raised its lending and deposit rates for a third time in four months. The Bank of Korea, however, surprised markets and opted to keep its key lending rate on hold at 2.75%. Last week, the Bank of Indonesia increased borrowing costs for the first time in more than two years. Speculation that policymakers will take further steps to curb inflation has weighed on stocks in the region.
BOE keep stimulus in place
The Bank of England maintained its emergency stimulus measures and held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5%.
U.S. jobless claims fall
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Claims dropped 36,000 to 383,000 in the week ended February 5. It was the lowest reading since July 2008 and points to the continued improvement in the job market as the economy picks up speed.
U.S. consumer confidence picks up
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer confidence for the month showed confidence among U.S. investors increased to the highest level in eight months.
U.S. trade gap widens
The U.S. trade gap widened 5.9% in December, and the full-year gap gained the most in 10 years. Imports rose 2.6%, and exports grew 1.8%, with both categories hitting levels not seen in over two years.
U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly declined in December
Manufacturing activity fell as economic activity was hampered by the coldest weather seen in a century. Factory output declined for the first time since April, falling 0.1% from November.
Global corporate news
Takeover deals dominate corporate news
The Deutsche Börse announced this week that it is in talks to buy the New York Stock Exchange in a deal valued at almost $10 billion. Meanwhile, the London Stock Exchange made a $3.1 billion bid for TMX Group. The week began with news that AOL would buy the Huffington Post for $315 million. In a merger that would step up consolidation in the offshore oil drilling industry, Ensco agreed to buy Pride International for $7.3 billion. Looking to gain a stronger foothold in the diagnostics industry, Danaher said it would buy Beckman Coulter for $5.87 billion. Kindred Healthcare disclosed it would acquire RehabCare for about $1.3 million in the latest health care deal driven by cost cutting. Overall, analysts say the trend reflects increased corporate confidence and economic recovery.
Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
In what is being billed as a major strategy shift for the handset maker, Nokia said it will adopt Windows Phone as its main smartphone platform. The move is part of Nokia's broad strategic partnership with Microsoft.
Cisco disappoints
Technology bellwether Cisco Systems disappointed investors this week as it announced its profits fell 18%; the company also reported its fourth consecutive quarterly decline in margins. Both were viewed as sign of growing competitive pressures in Cisco's core network switching business.
Credit Suisse hit by tougher regulations, capital requirements
Credit Suisse Group reported that its fourth-quarter net income rose a less-than-expected 6%. The company, which is Switzerland's second-largest bank, cut its 2010 dividend as well as future profit targets, saying that tougher regulations and capital requirements will likely cut into its bottom line in years to come.
Other profit news mixed
PepsiCo reported a 5% drop in its fourth-quarter profit and cut its earnings outlook, saying it faces headwinds from high unemployment, cost inflation, and a potentially tough pricing environment. Allstate, the largest publicly traded home and auto insurer in the United States said fourth-quarter profit fell 43% because of an increase in disaster claims. Sprint Nextel's fourth-quarter loss narrowed slightly, and Whole Foods lifted its 2011 forecasts for profits and sales. Kraft Foods' net income fell 24% amid higher costs for meat, packaging and other inputs.
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