U.S. markets began the week quietly as Monday was the lowest-volume full trading day on the New York Stock Exchange this year with just over two billion shares traded. The sluggish trading was the result of a slow holiday week exacerbated by a massive snowstorm that brought New York City and much of the Northeast to a standstill.
The year ended with ongoing concerns by investors worldwide about the European sovereign debt crisis, a murky outlook on the domestic housing and jobs fronts, and a U.S. municipal bond market that is set to have its worst quarter since 1994. Still, many investors are feeling optimistic that the stock market rally which started at the end of August will continue into 2011. A number of stock indices, particularly those in North American and Europe, are on track to post double-digit percentage gains for 2010.
U.S. financial markets are open today, New Year’s Eve. The bond market closes early at 2 p.m., and many overseas markets will have shortened sessions or will be closed on Friday. Happy New Year to all!
Global economic news
Confidence of American consumers drops slightly in December
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly fell to 52.5 in December from a revised 54.3 in November. The New York-based research group said lackluster economic growth and a pessimistic jobs outlook are largely to blame for the drop. The median forecast for U.S. consumer confidence, based on a survey of 61 economists, had projected confidence would rise to 56.3.
Italian business confidence hits 34-month high
The Isae institute’s manufacturing-sentiment index, which measures Italian business confidence, climbed to 103 in December, from a revised 101.7 in November. The latest figure, the highest level for the index in almost three years, indicates increasing optimism about economic recovery in the region.
Initial U.S. jobless claims at lowest level since July 2008
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims filed fell to 388,000 in the week ended December 25, down 34,000 from an upwardly revised 422,000 claims the previous week. It is the first time in over two years that the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims fell below the 400,000 level.
Pace of German inflation accelerates in December
The inflation rate in Germany increased to 1.9% in December from 1.6% in November, according to the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden. That is the highest rate since October 2008 and higher than the rate expected by economists who had projected an unchanged reading. Consumer prices jumped 1.2% from November, the biggest monthly gain since December 2002.
U.S. home prices tumble in October, third straight month-over-month drop
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, a broad gauge of U.S. home prices, fell 1.3% in October from a month earlier. The October drop in prices represents an annualized decline of 15%. Prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas were down 0.8% from October 2009, the biggest year-over-year decline since December 2009. Many economists project that the declines will continue into at least next spring.
French economy expands; pace of growth slows from previous quarter
The Paris-based statistics office Insee reported that France’s gross domestic product rose 0.3% in the third quarter, down from a 0.6% gain in the second quarter.
European retail sales grow at fastest pace since May 2008
A gauge of European retail sales increased to 52.9 in December from 51.3 in November, London-based Markit Economics reported on its Web site. The index, which is at its highest level since May 2008, is based on a survey of more than 1,000 executives. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Global corporate news
Cal-Maine Foods reported that its profit for the fiscal second quarter ended November 27 was $15.2 million, down from $16.1 million a year earlier. This represents a 5.6% drop in earnings for the largest U.S. producer and distributor of fresh-shell eggs. The company cited higher feed costs for the earnings decline.
BJ’s Wholesale Club reportedly hired investment bank Morgan Stanley to conduct an auction of the chain after receiving an unsolicited bid from Leonard Green & Partners LP earlier this year. But if the retailer does not move forward with the auction soon, Leonard Green, the Los Angeles private equity firm that bought 9.5% of the chain last summer, could launch a hostile takeover bid. Some analysts have estimated that BJ’s could sell for as much as $3 billion at auction.
Groupon, the Chicago online discount coupon site that earlier this month turned down a $6 billion takeover bid from Google, has filed to raise up to $950 million from the sale of preferred stock. Andrew Mason, Groupon’s chief executive, is raising money as he considers an initial public offering in 2011. This would be the biggest round of equity financing since Pixar sought approximately $500 million in 1995.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending December 23, 2010
Despite mostly light trading volume this week, U.S. stocks continued their winning ways of December. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 11559.49, its highest close since August 28, 2008. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index also reached a two-year high, closing at 1258.84, its highest level since September 8, 2008. The Nasdaq Composite hit 2671.48, a three-year closing high. All three indices are poised for double-digit gains for the year.
Globally, the European sovereign debt crisis was front-page news again as credit downgrades threatened to spread across the region despite attempts by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the European Central Bank to step in and help struggling eurozone economies.
Many major financial markets around the world are closed Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday. Happy holidays to all!
Global economic news
U.S. economy sees uptick as GDP revised slightly higher
The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual pace of 2.6% in the third quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. GDP, the value of all goods and services produced, is the broadest measure of a country’s economic activity. While the revised third-quarter GDP figure is slightly higher than the initial reading of 2.5%, it falls below the 2.7% level projected by many economists. The economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in the second quarter.
Wave of credit downgrades threaten eurozone
The European sovereign debt crisis was on the minds of investors and market watchers around the world as Moody’s Investors Service warned that it may lower Portugal’s credit rating by as much as two notches. The warning came less than a week after the agency said it may downgrade its rating on Spanish and Greek government debt. On December 17, Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating five levels to “Baa1” from “Aa2,” leaving the country just above speculative grade or junk status. France is also at risk of losing its top “AAA” rating, and Belgium is facing a possible cut. Further credit rating downgrades could make it more costly for eurozone periphery nations to borrow in capital markets.
Existing home sales edge 5.6% higher in November
The National Association of Realtors said that sales of previously occupied homes in the United States increased to a 4.68 million annual rate in November, up 5.6% from October’s 4.43 million. It was the third increase in sales of existing U.S. homes in the past four months.
Gas, oil prices up
Increased demand for petroleum has resulted in a 4% jump in gasoline prices since last month while crude oil prices rose above $90 per barrel for the first time since October 2008.
ECB to lend European banks $197 billion
The European Central Bank agreed to meet the liquidity needs of eurozone banks by lending them 149.5 billion euros ($196.8 billion USD) over a period of three months. While the central bank decided against giving 6- and 12-month loans, President Jean-Claude Trichet said that it will keep offering banks as much cash as needed through the first quarter of 2011 to help restore lending in the region.
U.S. initial jobless claims drop again
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims decreased to 420,000 in the week ended December 18. The latest number of filings represents 3,000 fewer claims than the previous week’s total.
Americans using less of their income to pay down debt
U.S. household financial obligations as a share of after-tax income fell to 16.78% in the third quarter from 16.97% the previous quarter. The drop indicates that Americans are allocating a smaller portion of their paychecks to paying off personal debt.
Airlines set to record biggest profits in over 10 years
The U.S. Department of Transportation reported that operating profits for airlines in the United States surpassed $7.1 billion in the first nine months of 2010. The figure exceeds the industry’s full-year profit figures going back to at least 1999 when airlines reported profits of $6.89 billion for a full 12 months. This year’s strong results are due in part to airfares, which are 13% higher than last year. New fees, including baggage fees, have also led to higher profits for the industry. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the industry collected $2.1 billion in fees during the third quarter alone. The airline industry lost more than $5.5 billion in 2008 at the height of the global recession.
Global corporate news
Global M&A activity jumps 16% in 2010
Deals in emerging markets helped spur a 16% increase in global mergers and acquisitions activity this year. According to preliminary data from Mergermarket, firms in developing countries closed 2,570 transactions worth a total $502.6 billion in the year to date. This figure represents a 42.9% increase over last year’s $351.8 billion.
The year’s two biggest deals were America Movil’s $28.1 billion takeover of Carso Global Telecom and GDF Suez Energy International’s $27.3 billion union with International Power. As more companies are seeking ways to spend their significant cash piles outside of their home markets, many industry analysts expect to see a continued upswing in M&A activity in emerging markets in 2011.
Other mergers and acquisitions news
Russian potash fertilizer producers OAO Uralkali and OAO Silvinit announced a long-anticipated merger earlier in the week. Uralkali reported that it is buying a 20% stake in Silvinit for $1.4 billion. The union will create a company with a market capitalization of nearly $24 billion.
Canada’s Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to purchase Chrysler Financial, the auto lender owned by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, for $6.3 billion. As part of the deal, Cerberus will retain about $1 billion of non-auto assets. The deal will place TD Bank in the top-five North American auto lenders. Chrysler Financial is no longer affiliated with the automaker whose name it bears.
Earnings update
ConAgra Foods reported a drop in profit for its fiscal second quarter ended November 28. Profit fell 16%, dropping to $200.9 million from $239.7 million a year ago. Net sales increased 2% to $3.16 billion, exceeding analysts’ projections.
Adobe recorded a profit of $268.9 million for its fiscal fourth quarter ended December 3, up from a year-earlier loss of $32 million. The maker of Photoshop and Illustrator design software cited strong product sales and subscription revenue as reasons for its strong performance.
Walgreens said its profit for the quarter ended November 30 was $580 million, up 19% from the $489 million profit the drugstore chain reported a year earlier.
Dillard’s appears to be on the verge of a comeback following a strong third quarter. The department store chain posted net income of $14.4 million, up from $8 million a year ago. Dillard’s, after nearly three years of financial troubles, seems to have turned things around by shuttering stores that did not report strong sales numbers, doing a better job tracking inventory, and buying higher quality products.
Globally, the European sovereign debt crisis was front-page news again as credit downgrades threatened to spread across the region despite attempts by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the European Central Bank to step in and help struggling eurozone economies.
Many major financial markets around the world are closed Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday. Happy holidays to all!
Global economic news
U.S. economy sees uptick as GDP revised slightly higher
The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual pace of 2.6% in the third quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. GDP, the value of all goods and services produced, is the broadest measure of a country’s economic activity. While the revised third-quarter GDP figure is slightly higher than the initial reading of 2.5%, it falls below the 2.7% level projected by many economists. The economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in the second quarter.
Wave of credit downgrades threaten eurozone
The European sovereign debt crisis was on the minds of investors and market watchers around the world as Moody’s Investors Service warned that it may lower Portugal’s credit rating by as much as two notches. The warning came less than a week after the agency said it may downgrade its rating on Spanish and Greek government debt. On December 17, Moody’s slashed Ireland’s credit rating five levels to “Baa1” from “Aa2,” leaving the country just above speculative grade or junk status. France is also at risk of losing its top “AAA” rating, and Belgium is facing a possible cut. Further credit rating downgrades could make it more costly for eurozone periphery nations to borrow in capital markets.
Existing home sales edge 5.6% higher in November
The National Association of Realtors said that sales of previously occupied homes in the United States increased to a 4.68 million annual rate in November, up 5.6% from October’s 4.43 million. It was the third increase in sales of existing U.S. homes in the past four months.
Gas, oil prices up
Increased demand for petroleum has resulted in a 4% jump in gasoline prices since last month while crude oil prices rose above $90 per barrel for the first time since October 2008.
ECB to lend European banks $197 billion
The European Central Bank agreed to meet the liquidity needs of eurozone banks by lending them 149.5 billion euros ($196.8 billion USD) over a period of three months. While the central bank decided against giving 6- and 12-month loans, President Jean-Claude Trichet said that it will keep offering banks as much cash as needed through the first quarter of 2011 to help restore lending in the region.
U.S. initial jobless claims drop again
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims decreased to 420,000 in the week ended December 18. The latest number of filings represents 3,000 fewer claims than the previous week’s total.
Americans using less of their income to pay down debt
U.S. household financial obligations as a share of after-tax income fell to 16.78% in the third quarter from 16.97% the previous quarter. The drop indicates that Americans are allocating a smaller portion of their paychecks to paying off personal debt.
Airlines set to record biggest profits in over 10 years
The U.S. Department of Transportation reported that operating profits for airlines in the United States surpassed $7.1 billion in the first nine months of 2010. The figure exceeds the industry’s full-year profit figures going back to at least 1999 when airlines reported profits of $6.89 billion for a full 12 months. This year’s strong results are due in part to airfares, which are 13% higher than last year. New fees, including baggage fees, have also led to higher profits for the industry. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the industry collected $2.1 billion in fees during the third quarter alone. The airline industry lost more than $5.5 billion in 2008 at the height of the global recession.
Global corporate news
Global M&A activity jumps 16% in 2010
Deals in emerging markets helped spur a 16% increase in global mergers and acquisitions activity this year. According to preliminary data from Mergermarket, firms in developing countries closed 2,570 transactions worth a total $502.6 billion in the year to date. This figure represents a 42.9% increase over last year’s $351.8 billion.
The year’s two biggest deals were America Movil’s $28.1 billion takeover of Carso Global Telecom and GDF Suez Energy International’s $27.3 billion union with International Power. As more companies are seeking ways to spend their significant cash piles outside of their home markets, many industry analysts expect to see a continued upswing in M&A activity in emerging markets in 2011.
Other mergers and acquisitions news
Russian potash fertilizer producers OAO Uralkali and OAO Silvinit announced a long-anticipated merger earlier in the week. Uralkali reported that it is buying a 20% stake in Silvinit for $1.4 billion. The union will create a company with a market capitalization of nearly $24 billion.
Canada’s Toronto-Dominion Bank agreed to purchase Chrysler Financial, the auto lender owned by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, for $6.3 billion. As part of the deal, Cerberus will retain about $1 billion of non-auto assets. The deal will place TD Bank in the top-five North American auto lenders. Chrysler Financial is no longer affiliated with the automaker whose name it bears.
Earnings update
ConAgra Foods reported a drop in profit for its fiscal second quarter ended November 28. Profit fell 16%, dropping to $200.9 million from $239.7 million a year ago. Net sales increased 2% to $3.16 billion, exceeding analysts’ projections.
Adobe recorded a profit of $268.9 million for its fiscal fourth quarter ended December 3, up from a year-earlier loss of $32 million. The maker of Photoshop and Illustrator design software cited strong product sales and subscription revenue as reasons for its strong performance.
Walgreens said its profit for the quarter ended November 30 was $580 million, up 19% from the $489 million profit the drugstore chain reported a year earlier.
Dillard’s appears to be on the verge of a comeback following a strong third quarter. The department store chain posted net income of $14.4 million, up from $8 million a year ago. Dillard’s, after nearly three years of financial troubles, seems to have turned things around by shuttering stores that did not report strong sales numbers, doing a better job tracking inventory, and buying higher quality products.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending December 10, 2010
In the wake of the proposed extension of Bush-era tax breaks and a payroll tax cut, many investors are turning away from U.S. Treasury bonds toward stocks. Prices on U.S. Treasuries and municipal bonds slumped this week as yields on 30-year Treasuries neared a seven-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average neared and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index reached a two-year high before faltering during the week amid concerns over the lack of consensus on the domestic tax package and disagreement among the European Union about the extent of bailouts for struggling eurozone countries.
U.S. economic news
Democrats push back against tax compromise plan
Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives withheld support for President Obama’s tax package on Thursday by agreeing not to vote on the newly negotiated tax package in its current form. A leading Republican said the deal, highlighted by extensions of Bush-era tax cuts for two years and long-term jobless benefits, is flawed because it fails to address fiscal austerity measures that will be needed to help reduce the mounting federal deficit. Despite the House Democrats’ nonbinding resolution, the tax measure moved closer to passage in the Senate.
Consumer credit jumps in October
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board reported that the level of consumer borrowing in the United States rose to $2.4 trillion in October, an increase of $3.4 billion from September. The increase, the most in more than two years, was largely the result of a $9 billion increase in nonrevolving credit, which includes categories such as car loans, to $1.6 trillion. Revolving credit, almost entirely credit card debt, dropped 8.4% for the month, meaning that credit card use has fallen for a record 26th straight month.
Jobless claims drop
The U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell to 421,000 in the week ended December 4. The figure is a decrease of 17,000 from a revised 438,000 claims filed the previous week.
U.S. and global corporate news
Three retailers head into holiday season with strong earnings
Talbots reported that its profit for the fiscal third quarter ended October 30 increased to $17 million from $14.6 million on higher margins. Still, the retailer lowered its earnings forecast for the year, raising concerns about its turnaround plan. Despite cutting debt, buying out its largest shareholder, and revamping its clothing line, the company's revenue in stores open at least one year fell 7.1% for the same period.
Neiman Marcus Group, operator of its namesake store and Bergdorf Goodman, said its profit rose to $25.7 million for the quarter ended October 30. The latest figure, more than triple the $8.5 million profit the company reported a year ago, could be an indication that sales of luxury goods are on the rebound.
Costco posted a profit of $312 million for its first quarter ended November 21, up 18% from $266 million a year earlier. Revenue increased 11% to $19.24 billion, while sales increased 11% to $18.82 billion.
Global economic news
Eurozone officials disagree over size of bailout fund
Eurozone finance ministers met this week to discuss a number of issues, including the rescue package for Ireland, the creation of a temporary bailout fund for other struggling economies, and the possible establishment of a debt agency to issue “e-bonds” in lieu of national debt. Officials are split on the need to increase the size of any bailout fund as German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected calls from Belgium and central bankers to boost the European Union’s 750 billion euro emergency fund or begin joint bond sales to save countries such as Portugal and Spain.
Ireland’s credit rating cut three levels
Ireland’s credit rating was lowered to “BBB+” from “A+” by Fitch Ratings. It is the second downgrade of the country by Fitch in two months. Ireland agreed to an 85 billion euro bailout from European governments and the International Monetary Fund on November 28.
RBA, BOE hold rates steady
Australia’s central bank voted this week to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said it expects inflation to remain contained over the “next few quarters.” The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee also left its key interest rate unchanged at its all-time low rate of 0.5%.
U.S. economic news
Democrats push back against tax compromise plan
Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives withheld support for President Obama’s tax package on Thursday by agreeing not to vote on the newly negotiated tax package in its current form. A leading Republican said the deal, highlighted by extensions of Bush-era tax cuts for two years and long-term jobless benefits, is flawed because it fails to address fiscal austerity measures that will be needed to help reduce the mounting federal deficit. Despite the House Democrats’ nonbinding resolution, the tax measure moved closer to passage in the Senate.
Consumer credit jumps in October
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board reported that the level of consumer borrowing in the United States rose to $2.4 trillion in October, an increase of $3.4 billion from September. The increase, the most in more than two years, was largely the result of a $9 billion increase in nonrevolving credit, which includes categories such as car loans, to $1.6 trillion. Revolving credit, almost entirely credit card debt, dropped 8.4% for the month, meaning that credit card use has fallen for a record 26th straight month.
Jobless claims drop
The U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell to 421,000 in the week ended December 4. The figure is a decrease of 17,000 from a revised 438,000 claims filed the previous week.
U.S. and global corporate news
Three retailers head into holiday season with strong earnings
Talbots reported that its profit for the fiscal third quarter ended October 30 increased to $17 million from $14.6 million on higher margins. Still, the retailer lowered its earnings forecast for the year, raising concerns about its turnaround plan. Despite cutting debt, buying out its largest shareholder, and revamping its clothing line, the company's revenue in stores open at least one year fell 7.1% for the same period.
Neiman Marcus Group, operator of its namesake store and Bergdorf Goodman, said its profit rose to $25.7 million for the quarter ended October 30. The latest figure, more than triple the $8.5 million profit the company reported a year ago, could be an indication that sales of luxury goods are on the rebound.
Costco posted a profit of $312 million for its first quarter ended November 21, up 18% from $266 million a year earlier. Revenue increased 11% to $19.24 billion, while sales increased 11% to $18.82 billion.
Global economic news
Eurozone officials disagree over size of bailout fund
Eurozone finance ministers met this week to discuss a number of issues, including the rescue package for Ireland, the creation of a temporary bailout fund for other struggling economies, and the possible establishment of a debt agency to issue “e-bonds” in lieu of national debt. Officials are split on the need to increase the size of any bailout fund as German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected calls from Belgium and central bankers to boost the European Union’s 750 billion euro emergency fund or begin joint bond sales to save countries such as Portugal and Spain.
Ireland’s credit rating cut three levels
Ireland’s credit rating was lowered to “BBB+” from “A+” by Fitch Ratings. It is the second downgrade of the country by Fitch in two months. Ireland agreed to an 85 billion euro bailout from European governments and the International Monetary Fund on November 28.
RBA, BOE hold rates steady
Australia’s central bank voted this week to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said it expects inflation to remain contained over the “next few quarters.” The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee also left its key interest rate unchanged at its all-time low rate of 0.5%.
Friday, December 3, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending December 3, 2010
Eurozone debt problems and the still-precarious nature of the U.S. economic recovery dominated the news this week. The euro dropped to a 10-week low, and bond markets across the European periphery sank as investors dismissed European leaders' latest attempt to restore market calm. On Sunday European governments agreed to bail out Ireland and set up a permanent rescue fund in the latest effort to stop the spread of panic that began last year in Greece. But by Tuesday investors were demanding record-high risk premiums for loans to Spain and Italy.
Volatility persisted throughout the week as strong manufacturing reports from China, Germany, and the United Kingdom countered fears about the eurozone. By Friday morning, however, U.S. stocks reversed a two-day rally, and Treasury prices jumped after the November U.S. jobs report dashed widespread hopes that the job market would accelerate last month.
U.S. economic news
Employers add fewer jobs than expected
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in November, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased. Nonfarm payrolls increased 39,000, less than expected, and the jobless rate rose to 9.8%, the highest since April. Hours worked and earnings stagnated. The numbers underline the continued weakness in the labor market, whose turnaround is seen as key to economic recovery. This week the law that extended unemployment benefits to as long as 99 weeks expired after Democratic and Republican senators blocked rival attempts to renew it. That means that extended jobless benefits affecting about two million people are set to expire at the end of the year.
Other data suggest recovery gathering momentum
Despite the discouraging signs from the labor market, other reports showed momentum this week. Retailers have reported robust November sales as consumers kept spending despite high unemployment. U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixteenth month in a row in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Factory output grew as consumers and businesses spent more on autos, computers, and other goods. Also last month, consumer confidence rose, according to the Consumer Confidence Index®. The measure rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October, reaching its highest level in five months
Housing prices still falling
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home values showed that home prices are falling faster in the nation's largest cities than in the rest of the country. The home-price index fell 0.7% in September from August. Eighteen of the 20 cities recorded monthly price declines.
House agrees to extend tax cuts
The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation this week that would extend the current tax rates on income up to $250,000. They also agreed to allow taxes on higher earnings to increase. However, the legislation is expected to fail in the Senate.
U.S. and global corporate news
S&P puts several Portuguese banks on credit watch
Standard & Poor's said it has put several Portuguese banks on credit watch with negative implications after it did the same with Portugal's long-term rating earlier in the week. The banks put on watch include Banco Santander, Santander Totta, Banco Comercial Portugues, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco BPI and the state-owned Caixa Geral de Depositos. S&P said it believes "that Portugal's macroeconomic challenges and difficult external financing conditions will put pressure on the bank's operating environment, potentially weakening their creditworthiness."
Toll Brothers swings to profit
The luxury home builder Toll Brothers swung to a profit for the second quarter in a row. The builder was helped by a tax benefit and fewer writedowns. At the same time revenues fell less than expected.
Global economic news
ECB extends liquidity measures
As the crisis in Ireland rocked global markets, the European Central Bank opted to extend its special liquidity measures, abandoning plans to wind down emergency support for banks and government debt markets. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB would continue to offer unlimited liquidity to banks for as long as necessary. He added that the bank would continue its special bond purchasing program to support the weakened eurozone debt markets.
Eurozone and U.K. economies show slow recovery
Meanwhile, reports this week showed that the eurozone economy slowed sharply in the third quarter as business investment ground to a halt. The slowing investment suggests companies are still too uncertain about the prospects of recovery to commit more capital. In the United Kingdom, weak confidence and jobs cuts weighed down the dominant services sector, which expanded at a marginally slower pace in November.
India posts 8.9% growth for quarter
India posted an 8.9% year-over-year increase for the quarter ended September 30 as the country's economic expansion continued.
Volatility persisted throughout the week as strong manufacturing reports from China, Germany, and the United Kingdom countered fears about the eurozone. By Friday morning, however, U.S. stocks reversed a two-day rally, and Treasury prices jumped after the November U.S. jobs report dashed widespread hopes that the job market would accelerate last month.
U.S. economic news
Employers add fewer jobs than expected
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in November, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased. Nonfarm payrolls increased 39,000, less than expected, and the jobless rate rose to 9.8%, the highest since April. Hours worked and earnings stagnated. The numbers underline the continued weakness in the labor market, whose turnaround is seen as key to economic recovery. This week the law that extended unemployment benefits to as long as 99 weeks expired after Democratic and Republican senators blocked rival attempts to renew it. That means that extended jobless benefits affecting about two million people are set to expire at the end of the year.
Other data suggest recovery gathering momentum
Despite the discouraging signs from the labor market, other reports showed momentum this week. Retailers have reported robust November sales as consumers kept spending despite high unemployment. U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixteenth month in a row in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Factory output grew as consumers and businesses spent more on autos, computers, and other goods. Also last month, consumer confidence rose, according to the Consumer Confidence Index®. The measure rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October, reaching its highest level in five months
Housing prices still falling
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home values showed that home prices are falling faster in the nation's largest cities than in the rest of the country. The home-price index fell 0.7% in September from August. Eighteen of the 20 cities recorded monthly price declines.
House agrees to extend tax cuts
The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation this week that would extend the current tax rates on income up to $250,000. They also agreed to allow taxes on higher earnings to increase. However, the legislation is expected to fail in the Senate.
U.S. and global corporate news
S&P puts several Portuguese banks on credit watch
Standard & Poor's said it has put several Portuguese banks on credit watch with negative implications after it did the same with Portugal's long-term rating earlier in the week. The banks put on watch include Banco Santander, Santander Totta, Banco Comercial Portugues, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco BPI and the state-owned Caixa Geral de Depositos. S&P said it believes "that Portugal's macroeconomic challenges and difficult external financing conditions will put pressure on the bank's operating environment, potentially weakening their creditworthiness."
Toll Brothers swings to profit
The luxury home builder Toll Brothers swung to a profit for the second quarter in a row. The builder was helped by a tax benefit and fewer writedowns. At the same time revenues fell less than expected.
Global economic news
ECB extends liquidity measures
As the crisis in Ireland rocked global markets, the European Central Bank opted to extend its special liquidity measures, abandoning plans to wind down emergency support for banks and government debt markets. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB would continue to offer unlimited liquidity to banks for as long as necessary. He added that the bank would continue its special bond purchasing program to support the weakened eurozone debt markets.
Eurozone and U.K. economies show slow recovery
Meanwhile, reports this week showed that the eurozone economy slowed sharply in the third quarter as business investment ground to a halt. The slowing investment suggests companies are still too uncertain about the prospects of recovery to commit more capital. In the United Kingdom, weak confidence and jobs cuts weighed down the dominant services sector, which expanded at a marginally slower pace in November.
India posts 8.9% growth for quarter
India posted an 8.9% year-over-year increase for the quarter ended September 30 as the country's economic expansion continued.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending November 19, 2010
In a fairly volatile week, optimism rose along with expectations that Ireland’s economic woes would be eased through a cash injection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Union. The anticipation of action that would stave off a worsening economic crisis caused the euro to rally and helped boost stock markets globally after many markets had dipped earlier in the week. Rising profits among U.S. blue chip firms and some mildly positive economic indicators also fed investor optimism. However, action by China to counter inflation weighed down markets on anticipated diminished demand for commodities.
In the United States, the consumer and producer inflation gauges both had benign readings, indicating that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board could have sufficient leeway to inject economic stimulus measures without sparking a rise in prices. Overall, broad global equity indices ended the week mostly unchanged. U.S. Treasury yields were mostly flat, except for the 10-year Treasury note, which rose as investors began to feel more confident about Ireland as well as the U.S. economy.
U.S. economic news
Inflation at lowest level since 1957
Two key inflation gauges showed muted price movements in October. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the seasonally-adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% from September and 1.2% from October 2009. The core inflation rate excluding food and energy prices was unchanged from September and rose 0.6% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, wholesale prices remained under control. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures how much manufacturers pay for goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for finished goods in October from September, and 4.3% from a year ago. However, the core index, without food and energy prices included, declined 0.6% last month, in its sharpest monthly drop in four years. The core index was up just 1.5% year over year.
Retail sales rise 1.2%
U.S. consumers appeared to be loosening their purse strings, as retail sales increased 1.2% in October, the fourth consecutive month of rising spending and the largest monthly increase since March. Retail sales risen to their highest level since August 2008.
Fed to require bank capital plans
All 19 banks that went through stress tests in early 2009 will have to submit capital plans to the Fed early next year to demonstrate their ability to withstand losses. This initiative is part of the Fed’s efforts to bolster bank supervision in the wake of the financial crisis and make sure large banks are on solid financial ground.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies decline
The rate of U.S. mortgage delinquencies fell in the third quarter of 2010, though still remained quite high. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on single-family homes fell to 9.13%, a drop of 0.72 percentage points. The percentage of loans in foreclosure proceedings fell to 4.39% from 4.57%.
U.S. jobless claims rise slightly
The number of U.S. workers filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose 2,000 to 439,000 in the week ended November 13, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of initial claims fell 4,000 to 443,000, its lowest level since September 2008.
U.S. and global corporate news
GM revs up finances with IPO
In the second largest U.S. initial public offering ever, General Motors raised $15.8 billion through common shares in its offering, selling 478 million shares at $33 per share, a higher-than-expected price. Counting additional shares that underwriters may exercise their right to sell, the total common stock sale could reach $18.1 billion. GM also raised $4.35 billion in preferred shares as the automaker sought to re-establish its financial independence after being bailed out by the federal government last year.
Big box stores in the black
A number of high-profile large companies posted third-quarter profits. Wal-Mart’s third-quarter earnings climbed 9.3% on strong international operations, but same-store sales in the U.S. fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, reflecting tight spending by low-income earners.
Home Depot’s earnings jumped 21% as cost controls and share repurchases offset the impact of the weak U.S. economy. The home improvement retailer also boosted its profit expectations for the year. Competing firm Lowe’s also reported rising profits, with earnings up 17% after reduced discounts and increased sales of private-label profits helped offset a shortfall in overall sales. In contrast to Home Depot, Lowe’s reduced its full-year outlook.
Sears loss widens while Penney’s profit soars
Sears Holdings’ third-quarter loss grew as sales fell substantially and the retailer continued to lose business to rivals. Comparable-store sales at Sears’ namesake stores declined by 8.2% while the company’s Kmart stores comparable-store sales fell just 0.7%, leading to a small profit within the division. In contrast, J.C.Penney’s third-quarter earnings rose 63% under improving sales conditions. However, the retailer’s inventory rose 6.2% from a year ago, and its gross margin, which indicates profitability, fell slightly.
Global economic news
Irish economic rescue package imminent
The Irish government, despite its distaste for depending on foreign financing, indicated that it would accept an international bailout to rescue its troubled banking industry. Late in the week, the government was negotiating a loan package with the IMF and European Union. Details of the loan, reportedly in the tens of billions of euros, were still being finalized. The Central Bank of Ireland said Friday that largely technical discussions with international delegations would continue for days to come.
China acts to curb inflation
The Chinese government made two decisive moves to counter inflation this week, with China’s State Council announcing Wednesday that it would limit price increases on a wide range of products, including grain, oil, sugar and cotton. On Friday, China increased bank reserve requirements for the second time in two weeks, essentially withdrawing cash from the banking system. Last week, official data showed China’s consumer price index rose 4.4% year over year in October, its fastest pace in two years and above the targeted 3% inflation rate for 2010.
Spanish economy stalls; bond sales ease fears
Spain’s economy continued to struggle in the third quarter, as its gross domestic product remained unchanged from the previous quarter and up just 0.3% from a year earlier, according to the country’s National Statistics Institute. Sales of close to $5 billion (3.65 billion euros) of long-term bonds on Thursday paid higher yields than two months ago, resulting in a higher level of confidence in the country’s weak economy and troubled banking sector.
Germany’s economic indicators are positive
German economic expectations rose more than expected in November. A closely watched economic-expectations index increased to 1.8 points in November from -7.2 points in October. The increase followed six consecutive months of decline. Additionally, a Centre for European Economic Research survey of analysts and institutional investors jumped 8.9 points to 82.5 points.
Eurozone inflation rises
Inflation in the 16 countries that use the euro climbed at the fastest rate in almost two years in October. Eurostat reported that consumer prices rose by 0.4% from September to October, and by 1.9% from a year earlier. The core rate of inflation excluding the prices for food and energy stood at 1.1% in October.
In the United States, the consumer and producer inflation gauges both had benign readings, indicating that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board could have sufficient leeway to inject economic stimulus measures without sparking a rise in prices. Overall, broad global equity indices ended the week mostly unchanged. U.S. Treasury yields were mostly flat, except for the 10-year Treasury note, which rose as investors began to feel more confident about Ireland as well as the U.S. economy.
U.S. economic news
Inflation at lowest level since 1957
Two key inflation gauges showed muted price movements in October. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the seasonally-adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% from September and 1.2% from October 2009. The core inflation rate excluding food and energy prices was unchanged from September and rose 0.6% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, wholesale prices remained under control. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures how much manufacturers pay for goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for finished goods in October from September, and 4.3% from a year ago. However, the core index, without food and energy prices included, declined 0.6% last month, in its sharpest monthly drop in four years. The core index was up just 1.5% year over year.
Retail sales rise 1.2%
U.S. consumers appeared to be loosening their purse strings, as retail sales increased 1.2% in October, the fourth consecutive month of rising spending and the largest monthly increase since March. Retail sales risen to their highest level since August 2008.
Fed to require bank capital plans
All 19 banks that went through stress tests in early 2009 will have to submit capital plans to the Fed early next year to demonstrate their ability to withstand losses. This initiative is part of the Fed’s efforts to bolster bank supervision in the wake of the financial crisis and make sure large banks are on solid financial ground.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies decline
The rate of U.S. mortgage delinquencies fell in the third quarter of 2010, though still remained quite high. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on single-family homes fell to 9.13%, a drop of 0.72 percentage points. The percentage of loans in foreclosure proceedings fell to 4.39% from 4.57%.
U.S. jobless claims rise slightly
The number of U.S. workers filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose 2,000 to 439,000 in the week ended November 13, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of initial claims fell 4,000 to 443,000, its lowest level since September 2008.
U.S. and global corporate news
GM revs up finances with IPO
In the second largest U.S. initial public offering ever, General Motors raised $15.8 billion through common shares in its offering, selling 478 million shares at $33 per share, a higher-than-expected price. Counting additional shares that underwriters may exercise their right to sell, the total common stock sale could reach $18.1 billion. GM also raised $4.35 billion in preferred shares as the automaker sought to re-establish its financial independence after being bailed out by the federal government last year.
Big box stores in the black
A number of high-profile large companies posted third-quarter profits. Wal-Mart’s third-quarter earnings climbed 9.3% on strong international operations, but same-store sales in the U.S. fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, reflecting tight spending by low-income earners.
Home Depot’s earnings jumped 21% as cost controls and share repurchases offset the impact of the weak U.S. economy. The home improvement retailer also boosted its profit expectations for the year. Competing firm Lowe’s also reported rising profits, with earnings up 17% after reduced discounts and increased sales of private-label profits helped offset a shortfall in overall sales. In contrast to Home Depot, Lowe’s reduced its full-year outlook.
Sears loss widens while Penney’s profit soars
Sears Holdings’ third-quarter loss grew as sales fell substantially and the retailer continued to lose business to rivals. Comparable-store sales at Sears’ namesake stores declined by 8.2% while the company’s Kmart stores comparable-store sales fell just 0.7%, leading to a small profit within the division. In contrast, J.C.Penney’s third-quarter earnings rose 63% under improving sales conditions. However, the retailer’s inventory rose 6.2% from a year ago, and its gross margin, which indicates profitability, fell slightly.
Global economic news
Irish economic rescue package imminent
The Irish government, despite its distaste for depending on foreign financing, indicated that it would accept an international bailout to rescue its troubled banking industry. Late in the week, the government was negotiating a loan package with the IMF and European Union. Details of the loan, reportedly in the tens of billions of euros, were still being finalized. The Central Bank of Ireland said Friday that largely technical discussions with international delegations would continue for days to come.
China acts to curb inflation
The Chinese government made two decisive moves to counter inflation this week, with China’s State Council announcing Wednesday that it would limit price increases on a wide range of products, including grain, oil, sugar and cotton. On Friday, China increased bank reserve requirements for the second time in two weeks, essentially withdrawing cash from the banking system. Last week, official data showed China’s consumer price index rose 4.4% year over year in October, its fastest pace in two years and above the targeted 3% inflation rate for 2010.
Spanish economy stalls; bond sales ease fears
Spain’s economy continued to struggle in the third quarter, as its gross domestic product remained unchanged from the previous quarter and up just 0.3% from a year earlier, according to the country’s National Statistics Institute. Sales of close to $5 billion (3.65 billion euros) of long-term bonds on Thursday paid higher yields than two months ago, resulting in a higher level of confidence in the country’s weak economy and troubled banking sector.
Germany’s economic indicators are positive
German economic expectations rose more than expected in November. A closely watched economic-expectations index increased to 1.8 points in November from -7.2 points in October. The increase followed six consecutive months of decline. Additionally, a Centre for European Economic Research survey of analysts and institutional investors jumped 8.9 points to 82.5 points.
Eurozone inflation rises
Inflation in the 16 countries that use the euro climbed at the fastest rate in almost two years in October. Eurostat reported that consumer prices rose by 0.4% from September to October, and by 1.9% from a year earlier. The core rate of inflation excluding the prices for food and energy stood at 1.1% in October.
Friday, November 12, 2010
U.S. economic News Week Ending November 12, 2010
U.S. bond markets were closed on Thursday in honor of Veterans Day. Stocks were mostly down for the week amid renewed concerns about European sovereign debt, especially that of Ireland and Portugal, and harsh criticism worldwide of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s latest injection of money into the economy.
Commodity prices soared this week, partly in reaction to the Fed’s stimulus plans and also on strong demand for raw materials from emerging markets. Gold prices continued their climb, reaching a new high of $1,410 per ounce, and copper prices also hit an all-time high.
U.S. economic news
Trade gap narrows more than expected
The U.S. trade gap fell 5.3% to $44 billion in September from $46.5 billion in August, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The trade deficit is $379.1 billion year to date, up 40% from the same period last year. U.S. exports were $154.1 billion in September, their highest level in over two years. Imports were $198.1 billion for the month. Exports were boosted by service-sector exports and a weak U.S. dollar.
New jobless claims drop to lowest level since July
The U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits decreased 24,000 to 435,000 in the week ended November 6. The decline brings new jobless claims to their lowest level in four months. The better-than-expected weekly numbers follow last week’s optimistic jobs report, which said 151,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in October.
Federal commission proposes $4 trillion in deficit cuts
The federal government’s 18-member fiscal commission released a preliminary report that recommends reducing the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years. The report, which has drawn criticism from the political left and the right, calls for significant spending cuts beginning in 2012, including cuts in Social Security benefits, reductions in domestic and defense spending, and the elimination of popular tax breaks. The commission will make its formal recommendations to President Obama on December 1.
U.S. and global corporate news
Third-quarter earnings continued to climb, with nearly 75% of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index reporting profits that are up significantly from a year ago.
General Motors contributed to the quarter’s overall positive earnings results by reporting a profit of $1.96 billion as revenue rose 20%. It was the automaker’s third-straight quarterly profit and its best quarter since 1999. The latest results were a marked turnaround from the $1.2 billion loss the company posted a year ago. GM’s earnings report was released ahead of next week’s planned initial public offering — the first time the company is selling shares to the public since it emerged from bankruptcy in July 2009.
Macy’s posted a profit of $10 million for the period ended October 30, compared with a prior-year loss of $35 million. The company has benefited from prior consolidations of its divisions, the introduction of several new brands, and a strategy to tailor its offerings to local markets. The turnaround for the department store operator could be a positive sign for retailers, as Macy’s typically kicks off the earnings season for major retailers and is seen by many analysts as a barometer of consumer spending.
Cisco Systems reported solid quarterly results but issued a weak sales forecast for the second straight quarter. The computer network equipment maker projected its revenue will increase by less than half of what analysts had projected for its November through January quarter. That disappointing outlook triggered a selloff in technology companies on Thursday.
Global economic news
Tensions high, expectations low as G-20 summit convenes
World leaders met for the Group of 20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, this week to debate international trade imbalances and develop plans to support a global recovery. Major topics discussed during the two-day summit included currency manipulation, trade gaps, and protectionism. The United States faced a number of setbacks throughout the meetings as President Obama was unable to secure a bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea. The United States was also the target of severe criticism from a number of countries, including China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and the eurozone following the Fed’s controversial decision last week to buy $600 billion in U.S. Treasury securities over an eight-month period.
U.S. delegation faces roadblocks in Seoul, especially with China
The United States entered the trade gap discussions at a significant disadvantage. While the U.S. trade gap narrowed slightly to $44 billion in September, China announced a huge trade surplus, $27.2 billion in October, up a staggering 61% from September. The widening trade gap has only heightened tensions between the two countries. The United States was unsuccessful in pressuring China’s President Hu Jintao on the importance of currency revaluation, in part because of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing. China believes the Fed’s latest move will lead to continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar and an eventual creditor crisis. As a result, the state-backed Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. on Tuesday downgraded its credit rating for the United States to “A+” from “AA.”
Leaders of the G-20 nations, despite failing to agree on definitive recovery steps, particularly on the U.S.-China currency dispute, outlined a number of macroeconomic policies and agreed to “refrain” from all-out currency warfare.
China inflation rate hits 25-month high
China’s inflation rate jumped to 4.4% in October, according to a Beijing statistics bureau report. The increase was due largely to a 10.1% increase in food prices. The increase exceeded the country’s official target rate of 3.0% and was a significant jump from September’s 3.6% rate. Although inflation has so far been restricted to food, price increases could spread as funds from Beijing’s economic stimulus measures and a surge in bank lending begin to impact the economy.
Commodity prices soared this week, partly in reaction to the Fed’s stimulus plans and also on strong demand for raw materials from emerging markets. Gold prices continued their climb, reaching a new high of $1,410 per ounce, and copper prices also hit an all-time high.
U.S. economic news
Trade gap narrows more than expected
The U.S. trade gap fell 5.3% to $44 billion in September from $46.5 billion in August, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The trade deficit is $379.1 billion year to date, up 40% from the same period last year. U.S. exports were $154.1 billion in September, their highest level in over two years. Imports were $198.1 billion for the month. Exports were boosted by service-sector exports and a weak U.S. dollar.
New jobless claims drop to lowest level since July
The U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of first-time filers for unemployment benefits decreased 24,000 to 435,000 in the week ended November 6. The decline brings new jobless claims to their lowest level in four months. The better-than-expected weekly numbers follow last week’s optimistic jobs report, which said 151,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in October.
Federal commission proposes $4 trillion in deficit cuts
The federal government’s 18-member fiscal commission released a preliminary report that recommends reducing the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years. The report, which has drawn criticism from the political left and the right, calls for significant spending cuts beginning in 2012, including cuts in Social Security benefits, reductions in domestic and defense spending, and the elimination of popular tax breaks. The commission will make its formal recommendations to President Obama on December 1.
U.S. and global corporate news
Third-quarter earnings continued to climb, with nearly 75% of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index reporting profits that are up significantly from a year ago.
General Motors contributed to the quarter’s overall positive earnings results by reporting a profit of $1.96 billion as revenue rose 20%. It was the automaker’s third-straight quarterly profit and its best quarter since 1999. The latest results were a marked turnaround from the $1.2 billion loss the company posted a year ago. GM’s earnings report was released ahead of next week’s planned initial public offering — the first time the company is selling shares to the public since it emerged from bankruptcy in July 2009.
Macy’s posted a profit of $10 million for the period ended October 30, compared with a prior-year loss of $35 million. The company has benefited from prior consolidations of its divisions, the introduction of several new brands, and a strategy to tailor its offerings to local markets. The turnaround for the department store operator could be a positive sign for retailers, as Macy’s typically kicks off the earnings season for major retailers and is seen by many analysts as a barometer of consumer spending.
Cisco Systems reported solid quarterly results but issued a weak sales forecast for the second straight quarter. The computer network equipment maker projected its revenue will increase by less than half of what analysts had projected for its November through January quarter. That disappointing outlook triggered a selloff in technology companies on Thursday.
Global economic news
Tensions high, expectations low as G-20 summit convenes
World leaders met for the Group of 20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, this week to debate international trade imbalances and develop plans to support a global recovery. Major topics discussed during the two-day summit included currency manipulation, trade gaps, and protectionism. The United States faced a number of setbacks throughout the meetings as President Obama was unable to secure a bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea. The United States was also the target of severe criticism from a number of countries, including China, Japan, Russia, Germany, and the eurozone following the Fed’s controversial decision last week to buy $600 billion in U.S. Treasury securities over an eight-month period.
U.S. delegation faces roadblocks in Seoul, especially with China
The United States entered the trade gap discussions at a significant disadvantage. While the U.S. trade gap narrowed slightly to $44 billion in September, China announced a huge trade surplus, $27.2 billion in October, up a staggering 61% from September. The widening trade gap has only heightened tensions between the two countries. The United States was unsuccessful in pressuring China’s President Hu Jintao on the importance of currency revaluation, in part because of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing. China believes the Fed’s latest move will lead to continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar and an eventual creditor crisis. As a result, the state-backed Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. on Tuesday downgraded its credit rating for the United States to “A+” from “AA.”
Leaders of the G-20 nations, despite failing to agree on definitive recovery steps, particularly on the U.S.-China currency dispute, outlined a number of macroeconomic policies and agreed to “refrain” from all-out currency warfare.
China inflation rate hits 25-month high
China’s inflation rate jumped to 4.4% in October, according to a Beijing statistics bureau report. The increase was due largely to a 10.1% increase in food prices. The increase exceeded the country’s official target rate of 3.0% and was a significant jump from September’s 3.6% rate. Although inflation has so far been restricted to food, price increases could spread as funds from Beijing’s economic stimulus measures and a surge in bank lending begin to impact the economy.
Friday, November 5, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending November 5, 2010
Stocks rallied this week to the highest level in more than two years as investors applauded the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy, a better-than-expected U.S. employment report, and strong corporate profits.
U.S. economic news
Fed details more quantitative easing plans
On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it would purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by June in a second round of quantitative easing. The central bank said it would also keep reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. Demand for Treasuries jumped on the news and pushed the yield of the two-year and five-year notes down to record lows.
Employment rises more than expected
Employment rose more than expected in October, bolstering optimism about the economic recovery. Payrolls climbed by 151,000 jobs, and the jobless rate held at 9.6%. The report also showed gains in hours worked and earnings. Average hourly earnings increased 1.7% in October from the same month last year. The numbers brought increased optimism that improvement in the labor market will boost household spending.
Data show uneven recovery
Other economic news from October continued to point to an uneven recovery. The Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing and service sector activity picked up. U.S. productivity exceeded expectations and rose at a 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter. U.S. retailers posted mixed results, with luxury apparel faring well.
U.S. and global corporate news
EPS top estimates at 77% of companies
Earnings per share have topped estimates at about 77% of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index reporting since October 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Net income has increased 32% for the group amid 9.8% growth in sales.
BNP posts 46% profit increase
BNP Paribas reported a 46% increase in third-quarter profits amid strong growth in its consumer banking networks.
American International Group posted a $2.4 billion net loss for the third quarter because of various restructuring charges totaling $4.5 billion. Its main insurance business, however, improved from a year ago.
Toyota Motor posted a lower-than-expected increase in fiscal second-quarter profit but raised its full-year outlook as operating income gains in Asia offset continued losses in Europe and Japan. Nissan Motor and Honda Motor also raised their full-year earnings forecasts this week but warned that the yen's rapid rise against other currencies was an ongoing risk to the bottom line.
Global economic news
ECB, BOE, BOJ hold rates steady
The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low of 1% for the nineteenth month, and the Bank of England left its key rate at 0.5% and maintained its asset purchase program at £200 billion. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at ultra low levels and finalized its plan to buy exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts in a ¥5 trillion asset program that it first announced last month.
Australia and India increase rates
Central banks in Australia and India raised rates to stem inflation pressures. China also signaled that an increase may be imminent.
U.S. economic news
Fed details more quantitative easing plans
On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it would purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by June in a second round of quantitative easing. The central bank said it would also keep reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. Demand for Treasuries jumped on the news and pushed the yield of the two-year and five-year notes down to record lows.
Employment rises more than expected
Employment rose more than expected in October, bolstering optimism about the economic recovery. Payrolls climbed by 151,000 jobs, and the jobless rate held at 9.6%. The report also showed gains in hours worked and earnings. Average hourly earnings increased 1.7% in October from the same month last year. The numbers brought increased optimism that improvement in the labor market will boost household spending.
Data show uneven recovery
Other economic news from October continued to point to an uneven recovery. The Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing and service sector activity picked up. U.S. productivity exceeded expectations and rose at a 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter. U.S. retailers posted mixed results, with luxury apparel faring well.
U.S. and global corporate news
EPS top estimates at 77% of companies
Earnings per share have topped estimates at about 77% of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index reporting since October 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Net income has increased 32% for the group amid 9.8% growth in sales.
BNP posts 46% profit increase
BNP Paribas reported a 46% increase in third-quarter profits amid strong growth in its consumer banking networks.
American International Group posted a $2.4 billion net loss for the third quarter because of various restructuring charges totaling $4.5 billion. Its main insurance business, however, improved from a year ago.
Toyota Motor posted a lower-than-expected increase in fiscal second-quarter profit but raised its full-year outlook as operating income gains in Asia offset continued losses in Europe and Japan. Nissan Motor and Honda Motor also raised their full-year earnings forecasts this week but warned that the yen's rapid rise against other currencies was an ongoing risk to the bottom line.
Global economic news
ECB, BOE, BOJ hold rates steady
The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low of 1% for the nineteenth month, and the Bank of England left its key rate at 0.5% and maintained its asset purchase program at £200 billion. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at ultra low levels and finalized its plan to buy exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts in a ¥5 trillion asset program that it first announced last month.
Australia and India increase rates
Central banks in Australia and India raised rates to stem inflation pressures. China also signaled that an increase may be imminent.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending October 29 2010
Stocks were mostly mixed for the week as investors reacted cautiously to a combination of encouraging and disappointing corporate earnings and economic reports. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported on Friday that the economy grew at a modest 2% in the third quarter. Investors, meanwhile, are anxiously awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s decision next week on the final dollar amount of any additional economic stimulus measures. Making news on the commodities front, cotton prices recorded the biggest drop in 15 years, as the price of the cotton futures contract for December delivery fell 4.6% to $1.2359 per pound. It was the biggest price decline for cotton in outright terms since 1995.
U.S. economic news
Fed may take more “measured approach” with additional economic stimulus
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s long awaited quantitative easing policy will most likely be announced following its next policy meeting on November 3. The Wall Street Journal noted this week that the Fed is likely to buy “a few hundred billion” dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds over a period of “several months” to pressure interest rates and stimulate the economy. This amount is well below the $500 billion to $2 trillion figures that have been projected by some analysts and industry experts.
Jobless claims drop to three-month low
The U.S. Department of Labor reported this week that initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended October 23. This was the second weekly drop in the number of new unemployment applicants in the past two weeks. Some economists believe that the latest figures could be an indication that the job market is finally stabilizing.
New home sales climb in September
The U.S. Department of Commerce said that the number of new home sales in September grew 6.6% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual level of 307,000 units. The jump in sales is potentially good news for the battered housing market, which saw sales throughout most of the summer that were the slowest on record since 1963.
Consumer confidence edges up
According to several leading economists, concerns about the job market appear to be keeping U.S. consumer sentiment largely in check. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased only slightly to 50.2 in October from a revised 48.6 in September. September’s reading was the lowest since February and down sharply from 53.2 in August. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. and global corporate news
Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. oil company by market value, reported third-quarter earnings of $7.35 billion, up from $4.73 billion a year earlier. Strong refining margins, higher commodity prices, and a 20% jump in oil production all contributed to this 55% jump in net income, surpassing analyst projections.
Ford Motor posted record third-quarter earnings gains of 70%, with net income rising to $1.7 billion from $997 million a year ago. The automaker cited a strong product line, momentum in North America, and continued success at Ford Credit as some of the reasons for the company’s dramatic turnaround. It was the sixth consecutive quarterly profit for the only U.S. carmaker who avoided a bankruptcy filing last year. Ford’s previous best third-quarter earnings were $1.1 billion in 1997.
ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, said net profit for the three months ended September 30 was $1.35 billion compared with $910 million for the same period a year earlier. Despite a 48% increase in profits, the Luxembourg-based company cautioned that the remainder of 2010 will likely be difficult, and the firm forecasted lower prices and weak demand.
Procter & Gamble reported that its fiscal first-quarter earnings declined 6.8%, to $3.08 billion from $3.31 billion a year earlier, as higher commodity costs negatively impacted margins. Still, the latest profit figures for the world’s largest consumer product company exceeded some analysts’ estimates.
Global economic news
U.K.’s economy expands in third quarter
Britain’s economy grew at a faster pace than projected during the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics. Gross domestic product increased 0.8% between July and September from the second quarter. Most economists had projected growth of only 0.4% for the quarter, following the previous quarter’s 1.2% growth rate. After the better-than-expected GDP figures were released, Standard & Poor’s raised Britain’s credit rating to stable from negative.
Bank of Japan revises growth forecast downward, holds interest rate steady
Japan’s central bank said in its October outlook report that the country’s economy will grow 2.1% in the year through March 2011 and 1.8% the following year. In July the bank had forecast growth of 2.6% and 1.9%, respectively. The bank, in a statement addressing its moderated forecast, cited declining demand in overseas markets such as the United States and China, the approaching end of government stimulus measures, and the strongly performing yen, which has risen to near historic levels against the dollar. In a separate move, the Bank of Japan voted to keep its key interest rate untouched at 0% to 0.1%.
German consumer confidence unchanged
GfK AG, the Nuremberg-based market research firm, said that its consumer sentiment index will remain at 4.9 in November, its highest level since May 2008. The figure is based on a survey of nearly 2,000 people. German unemployment declined for a fifteenth-straight month in October.
Switzerland consumer index falls to lowest level in six months
Switzerland’s economic recovery may be stalling, at least according to one consumer indicator. UBS AG’s index of consumption dropped to 1.7 in September from 1.95 in August. The latest figure is the lowest index reading since March. The consumer indicator is based on new car sales, retail sales, overnight hotel stays within the country by Swiss residents, consumer confidence, and UBS credit card transactions.
U.S. economic news
Fed may take more “measured approach” with additional economic stimulus
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s long awaited quantitative easing policy will most likely be announced following its next policy meeting on November 3. The Wall Street Journal noted this week that the Fed is likely to buy “a few hundred billion” dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds over a period of “several months” to pressure interest rates and stimulate the economy. This amount is well below the $500 billion to $2 trillion figures that have been projected by some analysts and industry experts.
Jobless claims drop to three-month low
The U.S. Department of Labor reported this week that initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended October 23. This was the second weekly drop in the number of new unemployment applicants in the past two weeks. Some economists believe that the latest figures could be an indication that the job market is finally stabilizing.
New home sales climb in September
The U.S. Department of Commerce said that the number of new home sales in September grew 6.6% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual level of 307,000 units. The jump in sales is potentially good news for the battered housing market, which saw sales throughout most of the summer that were the slowest on record since 1963.
Consumer confidence edges up
According to several leading economists, concerns about the job market appear to be keeping U.S. consumer sentiment largely in check. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased only slightly to 50.2 in October from a revised 48.6 in September. September’s reading was the lowest since February and down sharply from 53.2 in August. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.
U.S. and global corporate news
Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. oil company by market value, reported third-quarter earnings of $7.35 billion, up from $4.73 billion a year earlier. Strong refining margins, higher commodity prices, and a 20% jump in oil production all contributed to this 55% jump in net income, surpassing analyst projections.
Ford Motor posted record third-quarter earnings gains of 70%, with net income rising to $1.7 billion from $997 million a year ago. The automaker cited a strong product line, momentum in North America, and continued success at Ford Credit as some of the reasons for the company’s dramatic turnaround. It was the sixth consecutive quarterly profit for the only U.S. carmaker who avoided a bankruptcy filing last year. Ford’s previous best third-quarter earnings were $1.1 billion in 1997.
ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, said net profit for the three months ended September 30 was $1.35 billion compared with $910 million for the same period a year earlier. Despite a 48% increase in profits, the Luxembourg-based company cautioned that the remainder of 2010 will likely be difficult, and the firm forecasted lower prices and weak demand.
Procter & Gamble reported that its fiscal first-quarter earnings declined 6.8%, to $3.08 billion from $3.31 billion a year earlier, as higher commodity costs negatively impacted margins. Still, the latest profit figures for the world’s largest consumer product company exceeded some analysts’ estimates.
Global economic news
U.K.’s economy expands in third quarter
Britain’s economy grew at a faster pace than projected during the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics. Gross domestic product increased 0.8% between July and September from the second quarter. Most economists had projected growth of only 0.4% for the quarter, following the previous quarter’s 1.2% growth rate. After the better-than-expected GDP figures were released, Standard & Poor’s raised Britain’s credit rating to stable from negative.
Bank of Japan revises growth forecast downward, holds interest rate steady
Japan’s central bank said in its October outlook report that the country’s economy will grow 2.1% in the year through March 2011 and 1.8% the following year. In July the bank had forecast growth of 2.6% and 1.9%, respectively. The bank, in a statement addressing its moderated forecast, cited declining demand in overseas markets such as the United States and China, the approaching end of government stimulus measures, and the strongly performing yen, which has risen to near historic levels against the dollar. In a separate move, the Bank of Japan voted to keep its key interest rate untouched at 0% to 0.1%.
German consumer confidence unchanged
GfK AG, the Nuremberg-based market research firm, said that its consumer sentiment index will remain at 4.9 in November, its highest level since May 2008. The figure is based on a survey of nearly 2,000 people. German unemployment declined for a fifteenth-straight month in October.
Switzerland consumer index falls to lowest level in six months
Switzerland’s economic recovery may be stalling, at least according to one consumer indicator. UBS AG’s index of consumption dropped to 1.7 in September from 1.95 in August. The latest figure is the lowest index reading since March. The consumer indicator is based on new car sales, retail sales, overnight hotel stays within the country by Swiss residents, consumer confidence, and UBS credit card transactions.
Friday, October 15, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending October 15, 2010
Expectations of more quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board drove financial markets this week. Gold hit a record high of $1,387 per ounce on Thursday amid expectations that Fed actions would keep interest rates low. The U.S. dollar continued to take a beating as concern rose that lower rates would erode its value. The U.S. currency fell against most of its counterparts. It dropped to a record low against the Swiss franc and fell below 81 yen for the first time since April 1995. It also hit parity with the Australian and Canadian dollars as investors sought currencies of nations with higher-returning assets.
U.S. economic news
Bernanke says further stimulus may be needed
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made the case on Friday for new steps by the Fed to boost economic growth, saying that inflation was running below the Fed's objective of 2% and that the economy was on a course to grow too slowly to bring down unemployment. The comments came as the Fed considers whether to restart a program of purchasing long-term Treasury bonds to push down long-term interest rates to boost growth. The central bank meets November 2 to 3.
Price indices confirm tame U.S. inflation
The consumer and producer price indices both pointed to tame inflation in September. The seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose by 0.1% from August, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The core rate, which is more closely watched by the Fed, was unchanged in September. Underlying inflation is running below the Fed's informal target of between 1.7% and 2.0% because of the weak economy. The producer price index increased 0.4% last month. The core index increased 0.1%. It was the second month in a row that this core index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose. The pace of the increase suggests that limited demand is restraining inflation.
Trade deficit widens
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August as imports soared. The gap was fueled by a record deficit with China and a weak showing for U.S. exports.
Retail sales rise
Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, more than the 0.4% gain expected. It was the third month in a row that sales rose. The increase helped ease concern of a further weakening of consumer spending.
Jobless claims rise
The number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week. Jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 462,000 in the week ended October 9. The total number of people on unemployment insurance rolls decreased to the lowest level since November 2008, while those getting extended benefits declined.
U.S. and global corporate news
Google's profit rose 32% in the third quarter as display-ad and mobile businesses bolstered the company's core internet search ad sales.
General Electric's earnings fell 18% in the third quarter as it added $1.1 billion to reserves for a charge related to the 2008 sale of its Japanese consumer-finance business. Revenue slipped 5% from the year-earlier period. GE cited lower equipment sales as the reason for the decline.
Winnebago Industries reported profit for the fiscal fourth quarter as revenues more than doubled and cost cutting continued to pay off. The recreational vehicle market returned to profitability in the recent quarters after recovering from an industry crisis that caused competitors to file for bankruptcy and leave the business.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the French luxury goods maker, reported a 24% increase in third-quarter sales with all divisions posting double-digit growth. The sales report confirms the strong rebound of luxury products.
Global economic news
China's foreign currency holdings rise at rapid pace
China's central bank reported that its foreign currency holdings rose by nearly $200 billion from July to September. The rapid accumulation is seen as the result of the central bank's efforts to prevent the yuan from rising in value, a policy that helps keep the country's exports comparatively cheap.
Eurozone exports, industrial production point to steady recovery
European exports increased 1% in August as the eurozone manages to weather the global slowdown and a stronger euro. Inflation accelerated to 1.8%, the highest level since November 2008. Meanwhile industrial production in the region rose more than expected in August, a sign that the industrial sector continued to support recovery in the third quarter.
U.S. economic news
Bernanke says further stimulus may be needed
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made the case on Friday for new steps by the Fed to boost economic growth, saying that inflation was running below the Fed's objective of 2% and that the economy was on a course to grow too slowly to bring down unemployment. The comments came as the Fed considers whether to restart a program of purchasing long-term Treasury bonds to push down long-term interest rates to boost growth. The central bank meets November 2 to 3.
Price indices confirm tame U.S. inflation
The consumer and producer price indices both pointed to tame inflation in September. The seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose by 0.1% from August, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The core rate, which is more closely watched by the Fed, was unchanged in September. Underlying inflation is running below the Fed's informal target of between 1.7% and 2.0% because of the weak economy. The producer price index increased 0.4% last month. The core index increased 0.1%. It was the second month in a row that this core index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose. The pace of the increase suggests that limited demand is restraining inflation.
Trade deficit widens
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.3 billion in August as imports soared. The gap was fueled by a record deficit with China and a weak showing for U.S. exports.
Retail sales rise
Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, more than the 0.4% gain expected. It was the third month in a row that sales rose. The increase helped ease concern of a further weakening of consumer spending.
Jobless claims rise
The number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week. Jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 462,000 in the week ended October 9. The total number of people on unemployment insurance rolls decreased to the lowest level since November 2008, while those getting extended benefits declined.
U.S. and global corporate news
Google's profit rose 32% in the third quarter as display-ad and mobile businesses bolstered the company's core internet search ad sales.
General Electric's earnings fell 18% in the third quarter as it added $1.1 billion to reserves for a charge related to the 2008 sale of its Japanese consumer-finance business. Revenue slipped 5% from the year-earlier period. GE cited lower equipment sales as the reason for the decline.
Winnebago Industries reported profit for the fiscal fourth quarter as revenues more than doubled and cost cutting continued to pay off. The recreational vehicle market returned to profitability in the recent quarters after recovering from an industry crisis that caused competitors to file for bankruptcy and leave the business.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the French luxury goods maker, reported a 24% increase in third-quarter sales with all divisions posting double-digit growth. The sales report confirms the strong rebound of luxury products.
Global economic news
China's foreign currency holdings rise at rapid pace
China's central bank reported that its foreign currency holdings rose by nearly $200 billion from July to September. The rapid accumulation is seen as the result of the central bank's efforts to prevent the yuan from rising in value, a policy that helps keep the country's exports comparatively cheap.
Eurozone exports, industrial production point to steady recovery
European exports increased 1% in August as the eurozone manages to weather the global slowdown and a stronger euro. Inflation accelerated to 1.8%, the highest level since November 2008. Meanwhile industrial production in the region rose more than expected in August, a sign that the industrial sector continued to support recovery in the third quarter.
Friday, October 8, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending October 8, 2010
U.S. and global stock markets held steady this week as attention turned to mounting tensions in currency markets. The U.S. dollar hit fresh lows against several currencies, raising pressure on global leaders to address issues that have emerged as countries attempt to keep their currencies weak to boost exports. For the first time in years, currencies will be the leading topic of discussions for leaders gathering in Washington at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund. The rise of currencies such as the Japanese yen and Australian dollar threatens to derail economic recoveries and global cooperation. Investors have increasingly speculated about the possibility of a global agreement designed to stabilize currency markets and manage an orderly decline of the dollar.
U.S. economic news
Economy sheds more jobs than expected
The U.S. economy shed more jobs than expected in September as government payrolls declined by 159,000. Overall, employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers, a jump from the 75,000 workers let go in August. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, a lower number than forecast. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6%. The average work week held at 34.2 hours.
U.S. data show mixed recovery
Other data released this week showed a U.S. economy still on the course of an uneven recovery. Factory orders dropped more than expected in August. The decline was the third in the past four months. Commercial airplanes drove the decease; excluding transportation, all other factory orders rose. There were, however, positives in the report. A barometer of capital spending increased, and non-defense capital goods orders, excluding airplanes, rose by 5.1%. Meanwhile, the U.S. service sector expanded in September, allaying some of the fears that the economy could slip back into recession as manufacturing cools. An index based on a survey of U.S. purchasing managers at nonmanufacturing firms rose to 53.2 in September, from 51.5 in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported. Service sector firms account for two-thirds of the economy and employ four of every five private sector workers in the United States.
Also this week, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index increased 4.3% to 82.3 for August. Year over year the index was 20.1% below its level of 103 in August 2009, and consumer credit fell $3.3 billion in August from July to $2.414 trillion, the lowest level since early 2007. The decline was driven by a $5 billion drop in credit-card and other revolving credit to $822.2 billion. Car loans and other non-revolving credit rose $1.7 billion to $1.592 trillion.
U.S. and global corporate news
Alcoa kicks off earnings season with 21% drop in profits
Alcoa's profit fell 21% on higher operating expenses, even as sales benefited from higher prices and rising world demand for metals. Alcoa was the first Dow Jones Industrial Average company to report third-quarter results.
American, British Air, and Iberia launch trans-Atlantic venture
In an effort to compete with rivals and defend market share, American Airlines, British Airways, and Spain's Iberia Airlines forged a trans-Atlantic joint venture. International joint ventures have picked up as many countries keep foreign ownership limits on airlines and three major global alliances — Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and Oneworld — battle for the upper hand on cross-continental routes.
Renault sells 14.9% stake in Volvo
Renault, the second-largest car maker in France, sold a 14.9% stake in Volvo.
Global economic news
IMF reports stronger-than-expected growth for the first half of the year
The International Monetary Fund reported this week that growth in the first half of the year has turned out slightly stronger than it had expected with the global economy expanding at an annualized 5.25% rate.
ECB and BOE keep rates unchanged
The European Central Bank and Bank of England both held interest rates unchanged this week. Speaking before the meeting of the Group of Seven this week, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he opposes disorderly currency moves as concerns about "currency wars" mount. Worries about such wars have risen as countries around the world take measures to devalue currencies and loosen monetary policy to safeguard export-led growth.
German exports fall for second month in a row
German exports fell in August for the second month as a strengthening euro and slowing global growth curbed demand. The decline comes after exports helped growth in Europe's largest economy accelerate in the second quarter at the fastest pace in two decades.
U.S. economic news
Economy sheds more jobs than expected
The U.S. economy shed more jobs than expected in September as government payrolls declined by 159,000. Overall, employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers, a jump from the 75,000 workers let go in August. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000, a lower number than forecast. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6%. The average work week held at 34.2 hours.
U.S. data show mixed recovery
Other data released this week showed a U.S. economy still on the course of an uneven recovery. Factory orders dropped more than expected in August. The decline was the third in the past four months. Commercial airplanes drove the decease; excluding transportation, all other factory orders rose. There were, however, positives in the report. A barometer of capital spending increased, and non-defense capital goods orders, excluding airplanes, rose by 5.1%. Meanwhile, the U.S. service sector expanded in September, allaying some of the fears that the economy could slip back into recession as manufacturing cools. An index based on a survey of U.S. purchasing managers at nonmanufacturing firms rose to 53.2 in September, from 51.5 in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported. Service sector firms account for two-thirds of the economy and employ four of every five private sector workers in the United States.
Also this week, the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index increased 4.3% to 82.3 for August. Year over year the index was 20.1% below its level of 103 in August 2009, and consumer credit fell $3.3 billion in August from July to $2.414 trillion, the lowest level since early 2007. The decline was driven by a $5 billion drop in credit-card and other revolving credit to $822.2 billion. Car loans and other non-revolving credit rose $1.7 billion to $1.592 trillion.
U.S. and global corporate news
Alcoa kicks off earnings season with 21% drop in profits
Alcoa's profit fell 21% on higher operating expenses, even as sales benefited from higher prices and rising world demand for metals. Alcoa was the first Dow Jones Industrial Average company to report third-quarter results.
American, British Air, and Iberia launch trans-Atlantic venture
In an effort to compete with rivals and defend market share, American Airlines, British Airways, and Spain's Iberia Airlines forged a trans-Atlantic joint venture. International joint ventures have picked up as many countries keep foreign ownership limits on airlines and three major global alliances — Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and Oneworld — battle for the upper hand on cross-continental routes.
Renault sells 14.9% stake in Volvo
Renault, the second-largest car maker in France, sold a 14.9% stake in Volvo.
Global economic news
IMF reports stronger-than-expected growth for the first half of the year
The International Monetary Fund reported this week that growth in the first half of the year has turned out slightly stronger than it had expected with the global economy expanding at an annualized 5.25% rate.
ECB and BOE keep rates unchanged
The European Central Bank and Bank of England both held interest rates unchanged this week. Speaking before the meeting of the Group of Seven this week, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he opposes disorderly currency moves as concerns about "currency wars" mount. Worries about such wars have risen as countries around the world take measures to devalue currencies and loosen monetary policy to safeguard export-led growth.
German exports fall for second month in a row
German exports fell in August for the second month as a strengthening euro and slowing global growth curbed demand. The decline comes after exports helped growth in Europe's largest economy accelerate in the second quarter at the fastest pace in two decades.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending September 24 2010
During the week, negative economic news from Europe was tempered by a rise in German business confidence and reports of economic stabilization in the United States, notably in the housing industry. Several reports signaled that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing after a drop-off in activity following the expiration of a homebuyers’ tax credit in April. U.S. leading economic indicators were also slightly positive.
But what sparked the broadest response from diverse parts of the financial markets this week was a signal from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board that it would begin buying more government debt if that is necessary to stimulate the economy. This prompted record-high gold prices – with gold futures reaching $1,300 per ounce Friday morning – and a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against numerous foreign currencies.
U.S. economic news
Home sales, home starts rise
A couple of positive reports on the U.S. housing market were released this week. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that U.S. housing starts rose 10.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted 598,000 annual rate. This unexpectedly positive news was followed by a report from the National Association of Realtors that August home sales rose 7.6% from the previous month to 4.13 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. However, the price of U.S. homes fell 0.5%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Fed says it could take future action
Although the Federal Reserve made no changes to its key short-term interest rate and took no other immediate steps, it said in a statement that it “is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery,” and it expressed concern about inflation being too low.
Consumer Price Index flat
The U.S. core Consumer Price Index, excluding energy and food, was flat from July to August, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The overall CPI rose 0.3%. Year over year, the CPI rose 1.1%, with the core CPI up 0.9% in August from a year earlier. Because sluggish domestic demand is likely to keep inflation tame, many analysts expect the Fed to make large-scale asset purchases in the coming months.
Weekly jobless number rises
Initial unemployment claims rose by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended September 18, the U.S. Department of Labor said, but the four-week moving average fell by 3,250 to 463,250, reinforcing a longer-term positive trend.
Economic indicators lead upwards
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose slightly, but more than expected in August. This suggests a continued weak economic recovery, but eases immediate concerns of a double-dip recession.
Corporate debt defaults down
The default rate for U.S. corporate debt is expected to drop below 3% by the end of 2010, according to Moody’s Investors Service. This is a sharp drop from a peak of 14.6% in November 2009 and below the default rate of 3.1% from August 2008, a month before the financial crisis began.
Demand for capital goods rises
Although durable goods orders declined overall by 1.3% in August, orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft – a gauge of capital spending by businesses – increased by 4.1%. A sharp drop in demand for airplanes and cars was balanced by rising demand for machinery, computers, and fabricated metal products.
U.S. and global corporate news
Brazil’s Petrobras offers record share sale
Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras), Brazil’s federal oil company, introduced a share offer of $70 billion, which was snapped up, with the Brazilian government buying $43 billion and the market purchasing the remaining shares. Strong demand allowed Petrobras to sell the shares almost at par with Thursday’s closing price. The proceeds will go to develop recently discovered large offshore oil fields. Petrobras expects to double its oil output by 2014, making Brazil the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Nike’s profit rises 9%
Shoe and athletic apparel manufacturer Nike announced a 9% growth in its quarterly profit on higher demand for its athletic apparel and less costly discounting. The company says its revenue has rebounded in the last three quarters, following lagging demand during the recession.
Darden announces higher sales
Darden Restaurants, the casual-dining giant that owns Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Red Lobster, posted a 20% rise in first-quarter earnings. Although same-store sales fell 1.7% at Red Lobster, they rose more than 2% at Olive Garden and LongHorn in a positive sign for the casual-dining industry.
General Mills has healthy earnings
General Mills’ earnings rose 12% on higher sales of certain cereal brands and changes in the value of some commodity hedges. Profit was somewhat diminished by higher raw-material costs.
Global economic news
Eurozone growth slows
Private sector output growth in the eurozone slumped to a seven-month low in September and is expected to slow more in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by financial-information company Markit. The firm's monthly measure of private-sector activity fell to 53.8 in September from 56.2 in August. However, any number above 50 indicates growth. Meanwhile, new industrial orders in the eurozone posted their sharpest monthly drop in a year and a half in July. Factory orders fell 2.4% from June but rose 11.2% above year-earlier numbers.
German business confidence rises
German business confidence rose surprisingly in September, according to the German research institute Ifo. Its closely watched German business sentiment index rose to 106.8 in September from 106.7 in August, beating expectations of a slight drop.
Irish GDP stumbles
Just after Ireland recovered from its recession in the first quarter of 2010, its Central Statistics Office announced this week that its second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly fell 1.2%. Ireland was the first country in the eurozone to slide into recession and was one of the most troubled economies in the area last year.
But what sparked the broadest response from diverse parts of the financial markets this week was a signal from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board that it would begin buying more government debt if that is necessary to stimulate the economy. This prompted record-high gold prices – with gold futures reaching $1,300 per ounce Friday morning – and a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against numerous foreign currencies.
U.S. economic news
Home sales, home starts rise
A couple of positive reports on the U.S. housing market were released this week. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that U.S. housing starts rose 10.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted 598,000 annual rate. This unexpectedly positive news was followed by a report from the National Association of Realtors that August home sales rose 7.6% from the previous month to 4.13 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. However, the price of U.S. homes fell 0.5%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Fed says it could take future action
Although the Federal Reserve made no changes to its key short-term interest rate and took no other immediate steps, it said in a statement that it “is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery,” and it expressed concern about inflation being too low.
Consumer Price Index flat
The U.S. core Consumer Price Index, excluding energy and food, was flat from July to August, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The overall CPI rose 0.3%. Year over year, the CPI rose 1.1%, with the core CPI up 0.9% in August from a year earlier. Because sluggish domestic demand is likely to keep inflation tame, many analysts expect the Fed to make large-scale asset purchases in the coming months.
Weekly jobless number rises
Initial unemployment claims rose by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended September 18, the U.S. Department of Labor said, but the four-week moving average fell by 3,250 to 463,250, reinforcing a longer-term positive trend.
Economic indicators lead upwards
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose slightly, but more than expected in August. This suggests a continued weak economic recovery, but eases immediate concerns of a double-dip recession.
Corporate debt defaults down
The default rate for U.S. corporate debt is expected to drop below 3% by the end of 2010, according to Moody’s Investors Service. This is a sharp drop from a peak of 14.6% in November 2009 and below the default rate of 3.1% from August 2008, a month before the financial crisis began.
Demand for capital goods rises
Although durable goods orders declined overall by 1.3% in August, orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft – a gauge of capital spending by businesses – increased by 4.1%. A sharp drop in demand for airplanes and cars was balanced by rising demand for machinery, computers, and fabricated metal products.
U.S. and global corporate news
Brazil’s Petrobras offers record share sale
Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras), Brazil’s federal oil company, introduced a share offer of $70 billion, which was snapped up, with the Brazilian government buying $43 billion and the market purchasing the remaining shares. Strong demand allowed Petrobras to sell the shares almost at par with Thursday’s closing price. The proceeds will go to develop recently discovered large offshore oil fields. Petrobras expects to double its oil output by 2014, making Brazil the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Nike’s profit rises 9%
Shoe and athletic apparel manufacturer Nike announced a 9% growth in its quarterly profit on higher demand for its athletic apparel and less costly discounting. The company says its revenue has rebounded in the last three quarters, following lagging demand during the recession.
Darden announces higher sales
Darden Restaurants, the casual-dining giant that owns Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Red Lobster, posted a 20% rise in first-quarter earnings. Although same-store sales fell 1.7% at Red Lobster, they rose more than 2% at Olive Garden and LongHorn in a positive sign for the casual-dining industry.
General Mills has healthy earnings
General Mills’ earnings rose 12% on higher sales of certain cereal brands and changes in the value of some commodity hedges. Profit was somewhat diminished by higher raw-material costs.
Global economic news
Eurozone growth slows
Private sector output growth in the eurozone slumped to a seven-month low in September and is expected to slow more in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by financial-information company Markit. The firm's monthly measure of private-sector activity fell to 53.8 in September from 56.2 in August. However, any number above 50 indicates growth. Meanwhile, new industrial orders in the eurozone posted their sharpest monthly drop in a year and a half in July. Factory orders fell 2.4% from June but rose 11.2% above year-earlier numbers.
German business confidence rises
German business confidence rose surprisingly in September, according to the German research institute Ifo. Its closely watched German business sentiment index rose to 106.8 in September from 106.7 in August, beating expectations of a slight drop.
Irish GDP stumbles
Just after Ireland recovered from its recession in the first quarter of 2010, its Central Statistics Office announced this week that its second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly fell 1.2%. Ireland was the first country in the eurozone to slide into recession and was one of the most troubled economies in the area last year.
Monday, September 20, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending September 17, 2010
U.S. stocks rose this week as encouraging earnings reports and improved employment data buoyed investor sentiment. Gold, oil, and silver also moved higher. U.S. Treasuries rose as concerns increased that Ireland might have to seek external assistance from the International Monetary Fund as it grapples with its budget deficit.
Recent economic instability has been a trigger for gold buying. Gold prices rose to a record high of $1,274.75 per ounce this week amid talk that central banks will be net buyers of bullion this year for the first time in two decades and as worries increased that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will have to do more to prop up the U.S. economy.
U.S. economic news
Consumer and producer prices show tame inflation
U.S. consumer prices rose in August for the second consecutive month as gas and food prices rose. Underlying inflation, however, was flat. The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% from July. The underlying inflation rate, which is most closely watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, was unchanged. Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile energy and food prices, posted the smallest gain in the past three months. Meanwhile, producer prices climbed 0.4% in August, putting them 3.1% above their level one year ago. Again, much of the gain was the result of the jump in energy prices.
Factory production cools
U.S. factory production cooled in August with industrial production rising 0.2% after a 6% gain in July. The data point to a slower pace of growth. Capacity utilization, which measures the percentage manufacturers' plants and facilities that are use, increased to 74.7% last month from 74.6% in July. The gauge averaged 80% over the past 20 years. The lower number indicates that there is now enough spare plant equipment and space available to prevent the bottlenecks and higher prices that could occur if demand rises.
Unemployment applications fall
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in two months, a sign the labor market is improving. Initial jobless claims dropped by 3,000 to 450,000 in the week ended September 11.
U.S. and global corporate news
Oracle reported that its quarterly profit jumped 20%, aided by demand for business software and the addition of hardware sales from Sun Microsystems, which Oracle acquired earlier this year.
China's Anshan Iron and Steel Group said it will buy 14% of Steel Development, a Mississippi-based steelmaker, and jointly invest in up to five mills. The deal has sparked strong lawmaker opposition in the United States over worries that technology will flow to China and jobs will be lost. Initially Anshan planned to build a $168 million plant in Amory, Mississippi, where the U.S. plant is headquartered.
While FedEx said its fiscal first-quarter profit more than doubled, its earnings forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' estimates. The company raised its full-year earnings forecast and said it will eliminate 1,700 jobs.
Global economic news
Japan intervenes to support yen
Japan sold the yen against the dollar this week for the first time since 2004 in an effort to prevent the yen's gains from undermining the exports propelling Japan's growth. The unilateral move came after the yen fell below 85 per dollar for the first time in almost two weeks. The currency has rallied as concerns about the durability of the U.S. recovery and the effect of Europe's debt woes.
Australian consumer confidence falls
Australian consumer confidence fell in September for the first time in three months as households grew more concerned about the economic outlook.
India raises interest rates to contain inflation
The Reserve Bank of India increased interest rates for the fifth time this year and said its actions have brought the monetary situation close to normal. The repurchase rate was boosted to 6% from 5.75%, and the reverse repurchase rate a half point to 5%.
Eurozone exports fall
European exports fell in July for the first time in three months in July as a global slowdown started to curb orders for companies across the euro region. In July exports dropped 0.6% from June, when they rose 5.3%. Imports fell 1.5%. The trade surplus jumped to 6.8 billion from 2.3 billion in June.
Recent economic instability has been a trigger for gold buying. Gold prices rose to a record high of $1,274.75 per ounce this week amid talk that central banks will be net buyers of bullion this year for the first time in two decades and as worries increased that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will have to do more to prop up the U.S. economy.
U.S. economic news
Consumer and producer prices show tame inflation
U.S. consumer prices rose in August for the second consecutive month as gas and food prices rose. Underlying inflation, however, was flat. The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% from July. The underlying inflation rate, which is most closely watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, was unchanged. Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile energy and food prices, posted the smallest gain in the past three months. Meanwhile, producer prices climbed 0.4% in August, putting them 3.1% above their level one year ago. Again, much of the gain was the result of the jump in energy prices.
Factory production cools
U.S. factory production cooled in August with industrial production rising 0.2% after a 6% gain in July. The data point to a slower pace of growth. Capacity utilization, which measures the percentage manufacturers' plants and facilities that are use, increased to 74.7% last month from 74.6% in July. The gauge averaged 80% over the past 20 years. The lower number indicates that there is now enough spare plant equipment and space available to prevent the bottlenecks and higher prices that could occur if demand rises.
Unemployment applications fall
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in two months, a sign the labor market is improving. Initial jobless claims dropped by 3,000 to 450,000 in the week ended September 11.
U.S. and global corporate news
Oracle reported that its quarterly profit jumped 20%, aided by demand for business software and the addition of hardware sales from Sun Microsystems, which Oracle acquired earlier this year.
China's Anshan Iron and Steel Group said it will buy 14% of Steel Development, a Mississippi-based steelmaker, and jointly invest in up to five mills. The deal has sparked strong lawmaker opposition in the United States over worries that technology will flow to China and jobs will be lost. Initially Anshan planned to build a $168 million plant in Amory, Mississippi, where the U.S. plant is headquartered.
While FedEx said its fiscal first-quarter profit more than doubled, its earnings forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' estimates. The company raised its full-year earnings forecast and said it will eliminate 1,700 jobs.
Global economic news
Japan intervenes to support yen
Japan sold the yen against the dollar this week for the first time since 2004 in an effort to prevent the yen's gains from undermining the exports propelling Japan's growth. The unilateral move came after the yen fell below 85 per dollar for the first time in almost two weeks. The currency has rallied as concerns about the durability of the U.S. recovery and the effect of Europe's debt woes.
Australian consumer confidence falls
Australian consumer confidence fell in September for the first time in three months as households grew more concerned about the economic outlook.
India raises interest rates to contain inflation
The Reserve Bank of India increased interest rates for the fifth time this year and said its actions have brought the monetary situation close to normal. The repurchase rate was boosted to 6% from 5.75%, and the reverse repurchase rate a half point to 5%.
Eurozone exports fall
European exports fell in July for the first time in three months in July as a global slowdown started to curb orders for companies across the euro region. In July exports dropped 0.6% from June, when they rose 5.3%. Imports fell 1.5%. The trade surplus jumped to 6.8 billion from 2.3 billion in June.
Friday, September 10, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending September 10, 2010
Gold prices, after settling at a record high of $1,259.30 an ounce on Tuesday, retreated later in the week as investors appeared slightly calmer about the health of European banks and the global economy. Still, renewed worries about Europe’s sovereign debt situation pressured the world’s stock markets, although U.S. stocks were mostly up during this post-Labor Day week. Also this week, mortgage rates increased for the first time since June, with the 30-year fixed rate rising slightly to 4.35%.
U.S. economic news
Trade deficit narrows in July
The nation’s trade deficit fell 14% in July to $42.8 billion from $49.8 billion in June, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The figure is well below the $47.3 billion gap that had been forecast by economists. Led by aircraft and capital goods, exports reached a record $153.3 billion in July, up 2% from June and 18% from one year earlier. Imports fell 2% from June to $196.1 billion. A smaller trade deficit is potentially good news for the economy because it suggests trade will have less negative impact on growth in the third quarter than it had in the second quarter.
Credit card debt plummets
According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, revolving credit outstanding (almost entirely credit card debt) fell $4.4 billion to $827.8 billion in July from June. That figure represents a decline of 15% from the peak of $973.6 billion reached in August 2008.
Unexpected gas glut
Gasoline stockpiles increased by a record 5% during July and August. Supplies typically fall 6% in these two months. One benefit to gas buyers from the unexpected surplus: prices at the pump have remained largely the same during the summer months. The extreme gains in gasoline supplies are a result of record refinery output and high imports more than making up for robust consumption.
Fed's Beige Book reports uneven growth and signs of deceleration
The Fed reported in its Beige Book survey of economic conditions in the central bank’s 12 districts that recovery is occurring unevenly across the country. The report stated that regions dependent on manufacturing and farming were making the most progress while those reliant on housing were struggling. The report also said that while the U.S. economy maintained its expansion overall, five Fed districts have experienced “mixed conditions or a deceleration in overall economic activity” in mid-July through the end of August. The other seven regions all reported modest growth or conditions that were improving.
New unemployment claims fall
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that applications for unemployment benefits fell by 27,000 to 451,000 in the week ended September 4. Economists had predicted a much smaller drop of just 2,000 claims. While total initial jobless claims are still much higher than they would be in a healthy economy, they are now at their lowest level since July 10.
U.S. and global corporate news
Bristol-Myers Squibb announced that it is acquiring biotechnology company ZymoGenetics for $735 million. The deal is the latest in a series of small-to-midsize acquisitions and partnerships that Bristol has made over the past few years in an attempt to strengthen its product lineup.
British Airways and American Airlines, which won approval for their joint venture in July, will start their alliance on flights across the Atlantic in October. The two airlines will align their frequent-flier programs, allowing travelers to earn and use their miles on both airlines.
Talbots reported a profit of $941,000 for the quarter ended July 31, a considerable turnaround from a prior-year loss of $24.5 million. The women’s clothing and accessories retailer cited lower costs and resistance to markdowns as reasons for its improved earnings. Despite posting a profit, net sales decreased 1.3% to $300.7 million and same-store sales fell 1.4%, following a 25% drop in same-store sales one year earlier.
McDonald’s said same-store sales rose 4.9% in August from a year earlier, narrowly falling short of analyst estimates. Analysts projected global sales would increase 5%. The world’s largest restaurant chain reported that sales increased 4.6% in the United States, thanks in part to the popularity of its higher-margin smoothies and frappes.
Global economic news
OECD predicts slowdown in global economy
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projected that the pace of global economic expansion during the second half of 2010 will be slower than previously estimated. In its short-term forecast for the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, the think tank said annualized growth in G-7 gross domestic product will slow to 1.4% in the third quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter. That comes on the heels of growth of 3.2% and 2.5% in the first and second quarters of the year, respectively. Saying there is great uncertainty surrounding the world economy in the months ahead, the OECD added that central banks around the world may need to be prepared to provide additional economic stimulus.
Bank of Canada lifts benchmark rate
Canada’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, raising its target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks to 1% from 0.75%. Canada’s increases are the first among Group of Seven countries following last year’s global recession. The country seems to be recovering from the global economic downturn faster than most countries, as Canada has already returned to pre-recession employment levels. In addition, “consumption and investment have ‘evolved’ as anticipated and are expected to remain buoyant,” the Bank of Canada said.
Ireland’s state-owned bank to be split
Ireland’s troubled banking system became the latest victim in Europe’s continuing economic crisis, as the government said it would break up the weakest of its major banks to try to prevent a run by depositors. Anglo Irish Bank, which was nationalized by Ireland’s government last year, will likely be divided into a government-backed bank that would hold customer deposits and an “asset recovery” bank that would hold the bank’s increasingly bad loans. The intention is that eventually the recovery bank’s assets will be sold off in whole or in part. The move is being made as Ireland attempts to restore the reputation of its financial system.
U.S. economic news
Trade deficit narrows in July
The nation’s trade deficit fell 14% in July to $42.8 billion from $49.8 billion in June, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The figure is well below the $47.3 billion gap that had been forecast by economists. Led by aircraft and capital goods, exports reached a record $153.3 billion in July, up 2% from June and 18% from one year earlier. Imports fell 2% from June to $196.1 billion. A smaller trade deficit is potentially good news for the economy because it suggests trade will have less negative impact on growth in the third quarter than it had in the second quarter.
Credit card debt plummets
According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, revolving credit outstanding (almost entirely credit card debt) fell $4.4 billion to $827.8 billion in July from June. That figure represents a decline of 15% from the peak of $973.6 billion reached in August 2008.
Unexpected gas glut
Gasoline stockpiles increased by a record 5% during July and August. Supplies typically fall 6% in these two months. One benefit to gas buyers from the unexpected surplus: prices at the pump have remained largely the same during the summer months. The extreme gains in gasoline supplies are a result of record refinery output and high imports more than making up for robust consumption.
Fed's Beige Book reports uneven growth and signs of deceleration
The Fed reported in its Beige Book survey of economic conditions in the central bank’s 12 districts that recovery is occurring unevenly across the country. The report stated that regions dependent on manufacturing and farming were making the most progress while those reliant on housing were struggling. The report also said that while the U.S. economy maintained its expansion overall, five Fed districts have experienced “mixed conditions or a deceleration in overall economic activity” in mid-July through the end of August. The other seven regions all reported modest growth or conditions that were improving.
New unemployment claims fall
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that applications for unemployment benefits fell by 27,000 to 451,000 in the week ended September 4. Economists had predicted a much smaller drop of just 2,000 claims. While total initial jobless claims are still much higher than they would be in a healthy economy, they are now at their lowest level since July 10.
U.S. and global corporate news
Bristol-Myers Squibb announced that it is acquiring biotechnology company ZymoGenetics for $735 million. The deal is the latest in a series of small-to-midsize acquisitions and partnerships that Bristol has made over the past few years in an attempt to strengthen its product lineup.
British Airways and American Airlines, which won approval for their joint venture in July, will start their alliance on flights across the Atlantic in October. The two airlines will align their frequent-flier programs, allowing travelers to earn and use their miles on both airlines.
Talbots reported a profit of $941,000 for the quarter ended July 31, a considerable turnaround from a prior-year loss of $24.5 million. The women’s clothing and accessories retailer cited lower costs and resistance to markdowns as reasons for its improved earnings. Despite posting a profit, net sales decreased 1.3% to $300.7 million and same-store sales fell 1.4%, following a 25% drop in same-store sales one year earlier.
McDonald’s said same-store sales rose 4.9% in August from a year earlier, narrowly falling short of analyst estimates. Analysts projected global sales would increase 5%. The world’s largest restaurant chain reported that sales increased 4.6% in the United States, thanks in part to the popularity of its higher-margin smoothies and frappes.
Global economic news
OECD predicts slowdown in global economy
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projected that the pace of global economic expansion during the second half of 2010 will be slower than previously estimated. In its short-term forecast for the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, the think tank said annualized growth in G-7 gross domestic product will slow to 1.4% in the third quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter. That comes on the heels of growth of 3.2% and 2.5% in the first and second quarters of the year, respectively. Saying there is great uncertainty surrounding the world economy in the months ahead, the OECD added that central banks around the world may need to be prepared to provide additional economic stimulus.
Bank of Canada lifts benchmark rate
Canada’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, raising its target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks to 1% from 0.75%. Canada’s increases are the first among Group of Seven countries following last year’s global recession. The country seems to be recovering from the global economic downturn faster than most countries, as Canada has already returned to pre-recession employment levels. In addition, “consumption and investment have ‘evolved’ as anticipated and are expected to remain buoyant,” the Bank of Canada said.
Ireland’s state-owned bank to be split
Ireland’s troubled banking system became the latest victim in Europe’s continuing economic crisis, as the government said it would break up the weakest of its major banks to try to prevent a run by depositors. Anglo Irish Bank, which was nationalized by Ireland’s government last year, will likely be divided into a government-backed bank that would hold customer deposits and an “asset recovery” bank that would hold the bank’s increasingly bad loans. The intention is that eventually the recovery bank’s assets will be sold off in whole or in part. The move is being made as Ireland attempts to restore the reputation of its financial system.
Friday, September 3, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending September 3, 2010
Stocks got a lift this week after more modest-than-expected job losses and an unexpected jump in home sales eased some concern that the economic rebound is weakening. Adding to the more buoyant mood among investors were Wednesday's reports of strong manufacturing data from China and the United States, which further relieved concerns about a global slowdown.
U.S. economic news
Job losses moderate
Job losses continued to rise in August but at a more modest pace than expected. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 54,000 last month, matching the level of losses recorded in July. Private employers added 42,000 jobs in August, while a reduction in census workers dragged total payrolls down by 100,000 and pushed the unemployment rate up to 9.6%. Earlier in the week, reports showed that initial jobless claims fell by 6,000; that level indicates that the labor market has not improved this year even as the economy expanded.
Manufacturing gains add to enthusiasm
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 56.3 in August from 55.5 the prior month. Faster growth in production, employment, and inventories pushed the U.S. manufacturing index higher last month.
Unexpected jump in pending home sales
Pending home sales unexpectedly grew 5.2% in July. The jump was seen as a sign that the market may be starting to stabilize after the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit.
U.S. and global corporate news
Canadian banks miss expectations
The Bank of Nova Scotia's third-quarter earnings rose 14% as the internationally diverse bank posted a record quarter in its domestic banking business. Still, its results missed analysts' expectations. Toronto-Dominion Bank also missed analysts' expectations, despite a 29% jump in profit. That increase was powered by strong retail results in Canada and the United States and lower loan-loss provisions.
Heinz profits rise 13%
H.J. Heinz's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 13%, helped by strong sales of ketchup and staples such as Classico pasta sauces. During a conference call to announce its results, the Pittsburgh-based company again signaled its interest in making acquisitions in emerging markets.
Global economic news
ECB extends emergency lending measures
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet extended emergency lending measures for banks into 2011 as the risk of a renewed U.S. recession put the eurozone's rebound in crisis. The ECB said it will keep offering banks unlimited one-week and one-month loans at least until January 18. The ECB will also offer banks three-month loans in October, November, and December at interest rates linked to the ECB's average benchmark rate over the maturity of the loan.
Japan expands lending program and announces $10.8 billion stimulus
In an effort to combat the rising yen, which analysts have blamed for slower export growth and a sputtering economy, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its lending program and that the government would implement a $10.8 billion stimulus package.
U.S. economic news
Job losses moderate
Job losses continued to rise in August but at a more modest pace than expected. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 54,000 last month, matching the level of losses recorded in July. Private employers added 42,000 jobs in August, while a reduction in census workers dragged total payrolls down by 100,000 and pushed the unemployment rate up to 9.6%. Earlier in the week, reports showed that initial jobless claims fell by 6,000; that level indicates that the labor market has not improved this year even as the economy expanded.
Manufacturing gains add to enthusiasm
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 56.3 in August from 55.5 the prior month. Faster growth in production, employment, and inventories pushed the U.S. manufacturing index higher last month.
Unexpected jump in pending home sales
Pending home sales unexpectedly grew 5.2% in July. The jump was seen as a sign that the market may be starting to stabilize after the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit.
U.S. and global corporate news
Canadian banks miss expectations
The Bank of Nova Scotia's third-quarter earnings rose 14% as the internationally diverse bank posted a record quarter in its domestic banking business. Still, its results missed analysts' expectations. Toronto-Dominion Bank also missed analysts' expectations, despite a 29% jump in profit. That increase was powered by strong retail results in Canada and the United States and lower loan-loss provisions.
Heinz profits rise 13%
H.J. Heinz's fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 13%, helped by strong sales of ketchup and staples such as Classico pasta sauces. During a conference call to announce its results, the Pittsburgh-based company again signaled its interest in making acquisitions in emerging markets.
Global economic news
ECB extends emergency lending measures
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet extended emergency lending measures for banks into 2011 as the risk of a renewed U.S. recession put the eurozone's rebound in crisis. The ECB said it will keep offering banks unlimited one-week and one-month loans at least until January 18. The ECB will also offer banks three-month loans in October, November, and December at interest rates linked to the ECB's average benchmark rate over the maturity of the loan.
Japan expands lending program and announces $10.8 billion stimulus
In an effort to combat the rising yen, which analysts have blamed for slower export growth and a sputtering economy, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its lending program and that the government would implement a $10.8 billion stimulus package.
Friday, August 27, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending August 27, 2010
Stocks fell throughout the week amid further evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is losing steam. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the psychologically important 10,000 level. Friday's pledge by U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke to safeguard the U.S. economic recovery sparked a rally early Friday but did not seem to provide investors enough encouragement to erase earlier losses.
U.S. economic news
Bernanke pledges Fed to do all it can to ensure recovery
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the U.S. central bank "will do all that it can" to ensure economic recovery continues. He outlined steps the Fed might take if the economy slows. In his opening remarks to the world's central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke said the Fed is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if necessary.
GDP grows more slowly than thought
The U.S. economy grew more slowly that initially estimated in the second quarter and corporate profits nearly dried up. Gross Domestic Product rose from April through June at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.6%. A month ago, the government estimated the rate at 2.4% after a 3.7% expansion in the first quarter. After-tax earnings rose 0.1%, off the previous quarter's 11.4% gain.
Weak durable goods orders, drop in home sales show recovery losing pace
Weakness in durable goods orders and a drop to historic lows in new-home sales offered more signs that the economy is losing momentum. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in July from June, mostly on the back of an increase in aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders tumbled 3.8%.
Also this week, reports showed that sales of new single-family homes fell 12.4% in July from June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 276,000, the lowest level since the data series began in 1963. Many purchasers seem to have left the markets since the expiration on April 30 of a federal tax credit for homebuyers. Existing home sales suffered a similar decline, dropping a record 27.2% to their lowest level in 15 years, as inventories soared to their highest level in more than a decade. Adding to the discouraging news were reports by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that manufacturing activity in the district stalled.
Initial jobless claims decline more than expected
More encouragingly, initial jobless claims declined by 31,000 to 473,000, more than the 10,000 drop predicted by economists. However, new claims for the previous week were revised upward, and the four-week moving average rose to the highest level since November 2009.
U.S. and global corporate news
Toyota Motor announced it will recall about 1.13 million Corolla and Matrix cars for an engine defect that U.S. regulators said could cause stalling. The recall will affect model years 2005 to 2008 in the United States and Canada and comes after three reported accidents linked to the defect. GM will recall approximately 200,000 of the Pontiac Vibe, which was designed and engineered by Toyota and built alongside the Matrix at a joint manufacturing plant in California.
Johnson & Johnson pulled two hip-repair implants off the market because of quality problems. That recall, administered through J&J's DePuy Orthopaedics unit, came the same week that J&J's Vision Care unit withdrew about 100,000 boxes of contact lenses sold in Asia and Europe because of a manufacturing problem.
Spirits giant Diageo reported its net profit rose 1.5% for the year ended June 30. Sales increased 5% but were up only 2% when stripping out the effects of currency fluctuations, acquisitions, and disposals. During the fiscal year, Diageo benefited from an 11% jump in organic net sales in emerging markets, including China and India, but suffered a 2% sales decline in the developed world.
Global economic news
U.K. economy expands 1.2%
The U.K. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, marking its biggest growth spurt since 2001, as companies rebuilt inventories and construction work surged.
Standard & Poor's downgrades Ireland; Fitch upgrades Rwanda
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its long-term sovereign credit rating on Ireland one notch to AA-. The company said the projected fiscal cost to the Irish government of supporting the financial sector has increased significantly above prior estimates. Ireland's banks were hit by the property market crash; as a result, the Irish government was forced to pump billions of euros into the banks.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings upgraded Rwanda, citing the African nation's "strong growth" and an improvement in its business environment. It noted that the country has posted an "uninterrupted" period of strong economic growth that has more than doubled its per capita income since 1994, when genocide killed some 800,000 people. The rating was upgraded to B, five steps below investment grade.
Japan's exports rise, albeit at a slower rate
Japan's exports rose in July for the eighth month in a row as sales of products, such as cars and electronic components, in emerging markets were still solid. However, the rate of growth slowed for the fifth month in a row. That pace is expected to slow even more if the yen, which this week surged to a 15-year high against the dollar, continues to appreciate.
U.S. economic news
Bernanke pledges Fed to do all it can to ensure recovery
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the U.S. central bank "will do all that it can" to ensure economic recovery continues. He outlined steps the Fed might take if the economy slows. In his opening remarks to the world's central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke said the Fed is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if necessary.
GDP grows more slowly than thought
The U.S. economy grew more slowly that initially estimated in the second quarter and corporate profits nearly dried up. Gross Domestic Product rose from April through June at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.6%. A month ago, the government estimated the rate at 2.4% after a 3.7% expansion in the first quarter. After-tax earnings rose 0.1%, off the previous quarter's 11.4% gain.
Weak durable goods orders, drop in home sales show recovery losing pace
Weakness in durable goods orders and a drop to historic lows in new-home sales offered more signs that the economy is losing momentum. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in July from June, mostly on the back of an increase in aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders tumbled 3.8%.
Also this week, reports showed that sales of new single-family homes fell 12.4% in July from June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 276,000, the lowest level since the data series began in 1963. Many purchasers seem to have left the markets since the expiration on April 30 of a federal tax credit for homebuyers. Existing home sales suffered a similar decline, dropping a record 27.2% to their lowest level in 15 years, as inventories soared to their highest level in more than a decade. Adding to the discouraging news were reports by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City that manufacturing activity in the district stalled.
Initial jobless claims decline more than expected
More encouragingly, initial jobless claims declined by 31,000 to 473,000, more than the 10,000 drop predicted by economists. However, new claims for the previous week were revised upward, and the four-week moving average rose to the highest level since November 2009.
U.S. and global corporate news
Toyota Motor announced it will recall about 1.13 million Corolla and Matrix cars for an engine defect that U.S. regulators said could cause stalling. The recall will affect model years 2005 to 2008 in the United States and Canada and comes after three reported accidents linked to the defect. GM will recall approximately 200,000 of the Pontiac Vibe, which was designed and engineered by Toyota and built alongside the Matrix at a joint manufacturing plant in California.
Johnson & Johnson pulled two hip-repair implants off the market because of quality problems. That recall, administered through J&J's DePuy Orthopaedics unit, came the same week that J&J's Vision Care unit withdrew about 100,000 boxes of contact lenses sold in Asia and Europe because of a manufacturing problem.
Spirits giant Diageo reported its net profit rose 1.5% for the year ended June 30. Sales increased 5% but were up only 2% when stripping out the effects of currency fluctuations, acquisitions, and disposals. During the fiscal year, Diageo benefited from an 11% jump in organic net sales in emerging markets, including China and India, but suffered a 2% sales decline in the developed world.
Global economic news
U.K. economy expands 1.2%
The U.K. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, marking its biggest growth spurt since 2001, as companies rebuilt inventories and construction work surged.
Standard & Poor's downgrades Ireland; Fitch upgrades Rwanda
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its long-term sovereign credit rating on Ireland one notch to AA-. The company said the projected fiscal cost to the Irish government of supporting the financial sector has increased significantly above prior estimates. Ireland's banks were hit by the property market crash; as a result, the Irish government was forced to pump billions of euros into the banks.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings upgraded Rwanda, citing the African nation's "strong growth" and an improvement in its business environment. It noted that the country has posted an "uninterrupted" period of strong economic growth that has more than doubled its per capita income since 1994, when genocide killed some 800,000 people. The rating was upgraded to B, five steps below investment grade.
Japan's exports rise, albeit at a slower rate
Japan's exports rose in July for the eighth month in a row as sales of products, such as cars and electronic components, in emerging markets were still solid. However, the rate of growth slowed for the fifth month in a row. That pace is expected to slow even more if the yen, which this week surged to a 15-year high against the dollar, continues to appreciate.
Friday, August 20, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending August 20, 2010
Despite signs that the U.S. economy is recovering, initial unemployment claims and the four-week moving average both rose to their highest levels since late 2009. Meanwhile, producer prices and industrial production showed modest improvement.
Globally, economic signals also were mixed, with inflation rising in the eurozone while tapering in India. Japanese economic growth slowed to a crawl, while Germany’s central bank raised its economic forecast for 2010.
Stock markets reflected this ambivalence with a lackluster weekly performance. As of Friday morning, major U.S. stock indices had lost less than 1%, while major European indices were off about 2% and the largest Asian markets were down slightly for the week. Yields fell to 0.47% on two-year U.S. Treasury notes and 2.55% on 10-year Treasury notes as investors were drawn to safe havens in response to fears of ongoing economic weakness. Along a similar safety theme, gold futures rose for seven straight daily sessions through Thursday, hitting a seven-week peak of $1,235 an ounce for gold contracts for December delivery.
U.S. economic news
U.S. weekly jobless claims reach 500,000
Initial unemployment claims rose unexpectedly again, hitting 500,000 for the week ended August 14. Claims increased by 12,000, though economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a decline of 4,000. The four-week moving average rose by 8,000 to 482,500. The weekly jobless claims number and the four-week average reached their highest levels since late in 2009. As previously reported, the economy lost 131,000 jobs in July. Together, these reports signal a struggling economic recovery.
Philadelphia-area manufacturing index weakens
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index turned negative in August, signaling an economic contraction for the first time since July 2009. The widely watched survey fell to minus 7.7 from plus 5.1 in early July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a rise to plus 7.
Industrial production up slightly
U.S. industrial production rose 1% from June to July, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board reported. This was slightly better than expected.
Producer prices perk up, deflation fears ease
The U.S. Department of Labor’s Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in July after a drop of 0.5% in June. It was the index’s first rise in three months and helped ease growing concerns about deflation.
U.S. and global corporate news
BHP Billiton aims to take over Potash Corp.
Australian mining powerhouse BHP Billiton said it would ask Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp.’s shareholders directly to approve its $38.6 billion all-cash takeover bid after the fertilizer company’s board rejected the offer. The proposed acquisition needs approval from at least 50% of Potash shareholders.
Intel to acquire McAfee
Computer maker Intel agreed to pay $7.7 billion to buy computer-security software maker McAfee in the latest in a series of technology company acquisitions as profitable companies take advantage of low valuations to make bargain purchases.
GM files for an IPO
General Motors filed for a public stock offering that would allow the federal government to begin selling its 61% stake in the automaker and help GM raise money for its turnaround. GM’s interim CEO, Edward E. Whitacre, Jr., who oversaw the automaker’s dramatic return to profitability this year, will step down as chief executive September 1 and as chairman at year end. Last week, GM announced a second-quarter profit of $1.3 billion, its strongest quarter in six years.
Tech bellwethers post profits
Hewlett-Packard and Dell both reported improved profits for the quarter just ended, signaling strength in the technology sector. HP posted a 6% increase in profits on an 11% rise in revenue. Rival computer maker Dell’s profit rose 15% and its revenues were 22% higher than a year earlier.
Deere’s profit leaps
Deere & Company, the world’s largest manufacturer of farm machinery, announced a 47% jump in quarterly earnings as sales of large farm machinery and construction equipment rebounded. U.S. sales rose because of robust commodity prices, strong cash receipts from farming, and low interest rates. However, European demand continued to be weak.
Wal-Mart earnings up on non-U.S. results
Wal-Mart Stores posted a 3.6% increase in second-quarter earnings, with strong international results leading the way. The discount retail chain’s international sales and operating income had double-digit growth. However, its U.S. same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter.
Williams-Sonoma earnings soar
Williams-Sonoma, a retailer of housewares and home decor, posted a $30.8 billion profit for its quarter ended July 31, compared with just $399,000 during the same period a year ago. Excluding restructuring and other charges, the company grew its earnings six-fold. Revenue rose 15% and same-store sales grew 14%
U.S. and global corporate news
BHP Billiton aims to take over Potash Corp.
Australian mining powerhouse BHP Billiton said it would ask Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp.’s shareholders directly to approve its $38.6 billion all-cash takeover bid after the fertilizer company’s board rejected the offer. The proposed acquisition needs approval from at least 50% of Potash shareholders.
Intel to acquire McAfee
Computer maker Intel agreed to pay $7.7 billion to buy computer-security software maker McAfee in the latest in a series of technology company acquisitions as profitable companies take advantage of low valuations to make bargain purchases.
GM files for an IPO
General Motors filed for a public stock offering that would allow the federal government to begin selling its 61% stake in the automaker and help GM raise money for its turnaround. GM’s interim CEO, Edward E. Whitacre, Jr., who oversaw the automaker’s dramatic return to profitability this year, will step down as chief executive September 1 and as chairman at year end. Last week, GM announced a second-quarter profit of $1.3 billion, its strongest quarter in six years.
Tech bellwethers post profits
Hewlett-Packard and Dell both reported improved profits for the quarter just ended, signaling strength in the technology sector. HP posted a 6% increase in profits on an 11% rise in revenue. Rival computer maker Dell’s profit rose 15% and its revenues were 22% higher than a year earlier.
Deere’s profit leaps
Deere & Company, the world’s largest manufacturer of farm machinery, announced a 47% jump in quarterly earnings as sales of large farm machinery and construction equipment rebounded. U.S. sales rose because of robust commodity prices, strong cash receipts from farming, and low interest rates. However, European demand continued to be weak.
Wal-Mart earnings up on non-U.S. results
Wal-Mart Stores posted a 3.6% increase in second-quarter earnings, with strong international results leading the way. The discount retail chain’s international sales and operating income had double-digit growth. However, its U.S. same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter.
Williams-Sonoma earnings soar
Williams-Sonoma, a retailer of housewares and home decor, posted a $30.8 billion profit for its quarter ended July 31, compared with just $399,000 during the same period a year ago. Excluding restructuring and other charges, the company grew its earnings six-fold. Revenue rose 15% and same-store sales grew 14%.
Global economic news
China passes Japan as world’s second-largest economy
In the latest reminder of China’s growing clout and Japan’s decline as an economic giant, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter. China’s economic output was valued at $1.33 trillion in the second quarter while Japan’s economy stood at $1.28 trillion. Japan has had the world’s second-largest economy for most of the last four decades. In comparison, U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product was $14.6 trillion, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
German central bank raises economic forecast
The Deutsche Bundesbank raised its 2010 forecast for German economic growth to 3% from 1.9% after second-quarter figures released last week showed surprising strength. The country's economy grew at its fastest pace in 20 years, fueled by robust growth in exports.
Japan’s GDP slows to a crawl
Japan’s economy grew at an anemic 0.4% in the second quarter, falling far below expectations because of stagnant consumption and weak exports. Strength in the yen is weighing down demand for Japanese exports.
Taiwan economy grows
Taiwan’s economy grew at a robust 12.53% in the second quarter, much faster than the median forecast of 10.5% in a Dow Jones Newswires poll, prompting the Taiwanese government to raise its full-year GDP growth forecast to 8.24% for 2010, from 6.14%.
Inflation climbs in eurozone, eases in India
An increase in eurozone inflation and a decrease in the rate of rising prices in India could both be considered good news. Higher energy prices in Europe caused the eurozone annual inflation rate to rise to 1.7%, its highest annual rate since November 2008, but still below the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%. In India, wholesale inflation tapered to 9.97% in July from 10.55% in June.
Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section on mfs.com.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times
Globally, economic signals also were mixed, with inflation rising in the eurozone while tapering in India. Japanese economic growth slowed to a crawl, while Germany’s central bank raised its economic forecast for 2010.
Stock markets reflected this ambivalence with a lackluster weekly performance. As of Friday morning, major U.S. stock indices had lost less than 1%, while major European indices were off about 2% and the largest Asian markets were down slightly for the week. Yields fell to 0.47% on two-year U.S. Treasury notes and 2.55% on 10-year Treasury notes as investors were drawn to safe havens in response to fears of ongoing economic weakness. Along a similar safety theme, gold futures rose for seven straight daily sessions through Thursday, hitting a seven-week peak of $1,235 an ounce for gold contracts for December delivery.
U.S. economic news
U.S. weekly jobless claims reach 500,000
Initial unemployment claims rose unexpectedly again, hitting 500,000 for the week ended August 14. Claims increased by 12,000, though economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a decline of 4,000. The four-week moving average rose by 8,000 to 482,500. The weekly jobless claims number and the four-week average reached their highest levels since late in 2009. As previously reported, the economy lost 131,000 jobs in July. Together, these reports signal a struggling economic recovery.
Philadelphia-area manufacturing index weakens
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index turned negative in August, signaling an economic contraction for the first time since July 2009. The widely watched survey fell to minus 7.7 from plus 5.1 in early July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast a rise to plus 7.
Industrial production up slightly
U.S. industrial production rose 1% from June to July, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board reported. This was slightly better than expected.
Producer prices perk up, deflation fears ease
The U.S. Department of Labor’s Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in July after a drop of 0.5% in June. It was the index’s first rise in three months and helped ease growing concerns about deflation.
U.S. and global corporate news
BHP Billiton aims to take over Potash Corp.
Australian mining powerhouse BHP Billiton said it would ask Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp.’s shareholders directly to approve its $38.6 billion all-cash takeover bid after the fertilizer company’s board rejected the offer. The proposed acquisition needs approval from at least 50% of Potash shareholders.
Intel to acquire McAfee
Computer maker Intel agreed to pay $7.7 billion to buy computer-security software maker McAfee in the latest in a series of technology company acquisitions as profitable companies take advantage of low valuations to make bargain purchases.
GM files for an IPO
General Motors filed for a public stock offering that would allow the federal government to begin selling its 61% stake in the automaker and help GM raise money for its turnaround. GM’s interim CEO, Edward E. Whitacre, Jr., who oversaw the automaker’s dramatic return to profitability this year, will step down as chief executive September 1 and as chairman at year end. Last week, GM announced a second-quarter profit of $1.3 billion, its strongest quarter in six years.
Tech bellwethers post profits
Hewlett-Packard and Dell both reported improved profits for the quarter just ended, signaling strength in the technology sector. HP posted a 6% increase in profits on an 11% rise in revenue. Rival computer maker Dell’s profit rose 15% and its revenues were 22% higher than a year earlier.
Deere’s profit leaps
Deere & Company, the world’s largest manufacturer of farm machinery, announced a 47% jump in quarterly earnings as sales of large farm machinery and construction equipment rebounded. U.S. sales rose because of robust commodity prices, strong cash receipts from farming, and low interest rates. However, European demand continued to be weak.
Wal-Mart earnings up on non-U.S. results
Wal-Mart Stores posted a 3.6% increase in second-quarter earnings, with strong international results leading the way. The discount retail chain’s international sales and operating income had double-digit growth. However, its U.S. same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter.
Williams-Sonoma earnings soar
Williams-Sonoma, a retailer of housewares and home decor, posted a $30.8 billion profit for its quarter ended July 31, compared with just $399,000 during the same period a year ago. Excluding restructuring and other charges, the company grew its earnings six-fold. Revenue rose 15% and same-store sales grew 14%
U.S. and global corporate news
BHP Billiton aims to take over Potash Corp.
Australian mining powerhouse BHP Billiton said it would ask Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp.’s shareholders directly to approve its $38.6 billion all-cash takeover bid after the fertilizer company’s board rejected the offer. The proposed acquisition needs approval from at least 50% of Potash shareholders.
Intel to acquire McAfee
Computer maker Intel agreed to pay $7.7 billion to buy computer-security software maker McAfee in the latest in a series of technology company acquisitions as profitable companies take advantage of low valuations to make bargain purchases.
GM files for an IPO
General Motors filed for a public stock offering that would allow the federal government to begin selling its 61% stake in the automaker and help GM raise money for its turnaround. GM’s interim CEO, Edward E. Whitacre, Jr., who oversaw the automaker’s dramatic return to profitability this year, will step down as chief executive September 1 and as chairman at year end. Last week, GM announced a second-quarter profit of $1.3 billion, its strongest quarter in six years.
Tech bellwethers post profits
Hewlett-Packard and Dell both reported improved profits for the quarter just ended, signaling strength in the technology sector. HP posted a 6% increase in profits on an 11% rise in revenue. Rival computer maker Dell’s profit rose 15% and its revenues were 22% higher than a year earlier.
Deere’s profit leaps
Deere & Company, the world’s largest manufacturer of farm machinery, announced a 47% jump in quarterly earnings as sales of large farm machinery and construction equipment rebounded. U.S. sales rose because of robust commodity prices, strong cash receipts from farming, and low interest rates. However, European demand continued to be weak.
Wal-Mart earnings up on non-U.S. results
Wal-Mart Stores posted a 3.6% increase in second-quarter earnings, with strong international results leading the way. The discount retail chain’s international sales and operating income had double-digit growth. However, its U.S. same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter.
Williams-Sonoma earnings soar
Williams-Sonoma, a retailer of housewares and home decor, posted a $30.8 billion profit for its quarter ended July 31, compared with just $399,000 during the same period a year ago. Excluding restructuring and other charges, the company grew its earnings six-fold. Revenue rose 15% and same-store sales grew 14%.
Global economic news
China passes Japan as world’s second-largest economy
In the latest reminder of China’s growing clout and Japan’s decline as an economic giant, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in the second quarter. China’s economic output was valued at $1.33 trillion in the second quarter while Japan’s economy stood at $1.28 trillion. Japan has had the world’s second-largest economy for most of the last four decades. In comparison, U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product was $14.6 trillion, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
German central bank raises economic forecast
The Deutsche Bundesbank raised its 2010 forecast for German economic growth to 3% from 1.9% after second-quarter figures released last week showed surprising strength. The country's economy grew at its fastest pace in 20 years, fueled by robust growth in exports.
Japan’s GDP slows to a crawl
Japan’s economy grew at an anemic 0.4% in the second quarter, falling far below expectations because of stagnant consumption and weak exports. Strength in the yen is weighing down demand for Japanese exports.
Taiwan economy grows
Taiwan’s economy grew at a robust 12.53% in the second quarter, much faster than the median forecast of 10.5% in a Dow Jones Newswires poll, prompting the Taiwanese government to raise its full-year GDP growth forecast to 8.24% for 2010, from 6.14%.
Inflation climbs in eurozone, eases in India
An increase in eurozone inflation and a decrease in the rate of rising prices in India could both be considered good news. Higher energy prices in Europe caused the eurozone annual inflation rate to rise to 1.7%, its highest annual rate since November 2008, but still below the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%. In India, wholesale inflation tapered to 9.97% in July from 10.55% in June.
Stay focused and diversified
In any market environment, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. By working closely with your financial advisor, you can help ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified and that your financial plan supports your long-term goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any MFS product.
Securities discussed may or may not be holdings in any of the MFS funds. For a complete list of holdings for any MFS portfolio, please see the most recent annual, semiannual, or quarterly report. Full holdings are also available on the individual Fund Profile tab in the Products and Performance section on mfs.com.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Sources: MFS research; The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal Online; Bloomberg News; Financial Times
Saturday, August 14, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending August 13, 2010
Stocks fell throughout the week as worries intensified that global growth is slowing. Investors dumped commodities and riskier currencies amid a flight to safety that sent the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and gold higher. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board's (Fed) downgrade of its assessment of the U.S. economy and its vow to stop shrinking its securities portfolio intensified concerns about a fading recovery. Another poor jobs report and a profit warning from technology giant Cisco Systems on Thursday accelerated the equity decline.
U.S. economic news
Fed downgrades assessment of U.S. economic recovery
The Fed said this week that "the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated." The central bank said it will buy U.S. Treasuries with proceeds from mortgage holdings. It set a $2.05 trillion floor on its holdings of government bonds and housing debt to buoy an economic recovery. The Fed's statement followed a government report last month that showed the recession that started in December 2007 was worse than estimated.
Increase in jobless claims adds to evidence of weakening economy
An unexpected increase in jobless claims this week added to evidence that the economy is weakening. The number of U.S. workers making new claims for jobless benefits climbed last week to the highest level in six months. Initial unemployment claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended August 7, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Also this week, reports showed personal incomes fell in the United States last year, except in areas with a high concentration of federal government and military jobs.
Retail sales rise less than forecast
Retail sales rose less than forecast in July as a lack of jobs caused consumers to hold back on spending. Sales rose 0.4%, led by autos and gasoline. Economists predicted a 0.5% gain.
Cost of living rises
The cost of living in the United States rose for the first time in four months as the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%, the most in a year. The gauge, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1%.
U.S. and global corporate news
Cisco Systems results fall short of expectations
Cisco Systems' revenue from its latest quarter and its forecast for future revenue fell short of analysts' expectations. Cisco is seen as a bellwether for the technology sector and the drop in the profits of the company was viewed as a sign that consumers' reluctance to spend is starting to affect corporate sales and profits.
Freddie loses; Disney gains
Freddie Mac reported a second-quarter loss of $4.7 billion and asked the United States for $1.8 billion more in aid. Disney posted strong earnings and revenue growth aided by hit movies and an improving economic climate.
Merger and acquisition activity rises
Deal activity rose this week, boosting hopes that U.S companies are ready to put their $1.8 trillion of stockpiled cash to work. The Blackstone Group agreed to buy Dynegy for $4.7 billion, and International Business Machines said it would acquire Unica for about $480 million.
Global economic news
European economy expands more than expected
Europe’s economy expanded more than economists forecast in the second quarter as the fastest growth in Germany in two decades powered the region’s recovery. The eurozone's gross domestic product increased 1% from the first quarter when it rose 0.2%. This is the fastest growth rate that the 16-country region has experienced in four years, and it is the first time eurozone growth has outpaced that of the United States since the second quarter of 2009. Germany's exports surged in June to near prerecession levels.
China pushes currency lower
China pushed its currency sharply lower on Thursday; the move essentially wiped out gains the yuan had made since the Chinese government loosened its peg against the dollar in June. The country's trade surplus rose in July to its highest level in a year and a half.
U.S. economic news
Fed downgrades assessment of U.S. economic recovery
The Fed said this week that "the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated." The central bank said it will buy U.S. Treasuries with proceeds from mortgage holdings. It set a $2.05 trillion floor on its holdings of government bonds and housing debt to buoy an economic recovery. The Fed's statement followed a government report last month that showed the recession that started in December 2007 was worse than estimated.
Increase in jobless claims adds to evidence of weakening economy
An unexpected increase in jobless claims this week added to evidence that the economy is weakening. The number of U.S. workers making new claims for jobless benefits climbed last week to the highest level in six months. Initial unemployment claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended August 7, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Also this week, reports showed personal incomes fell in the United States last year, except in areas with a high concentration of federal government and military jobs.
Retail sales rise less than forecast
Retail sales rose less than forecast in July as a lack of jobs caused consumers to hold back on spending. Sales rose 0.4%, led by autos and gasoline. Economists predicted a 0.5% gain.
Cost of living rises
The cost of living in the United States rose for the first time in four months as the Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%, the most in a year. The gauge, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1%.
U.S. and global corporate news
Cisco Systems results fall short of expectations
Cisco Systems' revenue from its latest quarter and its forecast for future revenue fell short of analysts' expectations. Cisco is seen as a bellwether for the technology sector and the drop in the profits of the company was viewed as a sign that consumers' reluctance to spend is starting to affect corporate sales and profits.
Freddie loses; Disney gains
Freddie Mac reported a second-quarter loss of $4.7 billion and asked the United States for $1.8 billion more in aid. Disney posted strong earnings and revenue growth aided by hit movies and an improving economic climate.
Merger and acquisition activity rises
Deal activity rose this week, boosting hopes that U.S companies are ready to put their $1.8 trillion of stockpiled cash to work. The Blackstone Group agreed to buy Dynegy for $4.7 billion, and International Business Machines said it would acquire Unica for about $480 million.
Global economic news
European economy expands more than expected
Europe’s economy expanded more than economists forecast in the second quarter as the fastest growth in Germany in two decades powered the region’s recovery. The eurozone's gross domestic product increased 1% from the first quarter when it rose 0.2%. This is the fastest growth rate that the 16-country region has experienced in four years, and it is the first time eurozone growth has outpaced that of the United States since the second quarter of 2009. Germany's exports surged in June to near prerecession levels.
China pushes currency lower
China pushed its currency sharply lower on Thursday; the move essentially wiped out gains the yuan had made since the Chinese government loosened its peg against the dollar in June. The country's trade surplus rose in July to its highest level in a year and a half.
Monday, August 9, 2010
U.S. Economic News Week Ending August 6, 2010
U.S. stocks were volatile this week as investors struggled with conflicting corporate and economic data. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell below 0.5% for the first time after a weaker- than-expected U.S. employment report added to evidence that the economy may be slowing. That news trimmed gains that stocks made earlier in the week on news of strong earnings reports. As of Friday, 72% of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index had reported better-than-expected results.
U.S. economic news
Employment falls more than expected; unemployment rate steady at 9.5%
Employment fell more than expected in July as the economy shed 131,000 jobs; the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%. The numbers are another sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum. Nonfarm payrolls fell last month because the rise in private-sector employment was not enough to make up for the government jobs lost.
U.S. service sector growth picks up; manufacturing growth slows
The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. service sector growth picked up in July. Service companies have expanded every month this year, but the sector continues to grow at a less robust pace than in the manufacturing sector. Its slow recovery has put a damper on overall hiring because it accounts for 80% of U.S. employment. Despite its strong recovery to date, growth in manufacturing slowed in July.
Retail sales rise but fall short of expectations
Retail sales at U.S. chain stores rose 2.9% in July, falling short of forecasts, as markdowns failed to inspire consumers.
U.S. and global corporate news
European banks post solid profits
HSBC's reported pretax profit more than doubled to $11.1 billion in the first half, while BNP Paribas posted a 31% increase in net income as provisions for bad loans dropped. Barclay's posted a 29% increase in net profit, but costs soared and revenue fell at Barclay Capital's investment banking unit. Société Générale's earnings more than tripled as strong retail operations and lower provisions helped offset a weaker investment banking business. American International Group swung to a $2.7 billion net loss for the second quarter because of charges associated with a unit that is being sold. That loss compares with a $1.8 billion net profit a year ago. Still, the company's insurance business generated an operating profit.
Toyota raises forecast; Rio Tinto profits more than triple
Toyota Motor raised its profit forecast for its fiscal year and posted its highest quarterly net profit in two years after it was able to improve its U.S. finance division and reduce costs. Rio Tinto's profits more than tripled in the first half, and the company made plans to increase output in Australia and Africa.
Newsweek sold; Barnes and Noble on block
The Washington Post Company agreed to sell the 77-year-old Newsweek magazine to stereo tycoon Sidney Harman. Barnes and Noble put itself up for sale as digital books eroded its traditional business.
Global economic news
Global manufacturing activity slows
Growth in manufacturing activity slowed in many of the world's major economies in July; the weaker pace indicates that factories will not be the strong driver of growth that they were earlier in the year. Growth slowed in a large portion of Asia, with China's manufacturing activity expanding at the slowest pace in 17 months amid tightening measures and uncertain global demand. In Europe, however, activity strengthened.
ECB and BOE keep rates steady
The European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their main interest rates unchanged this week. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Europe is recovering faster than forecast and money markets are improving. Markets saw these remarks as an indication that the ECB is looking for ways to phase out liquidity tools put in place to fight the financial crisis.
Wheat prices rise after Russia bans exports
Wheat futures prices in Europe and the United States soared to their highest levels in 23 months after Russia said it would ban grain exports because of a severe drought. That move has heightened concerns about global supplies of grain and the possible impact on food prices. Russia's troubles are all the more problematic because many of the world's wheat exporters have also experienced crop problems. Canada has been hit with heavy rains, Australia has battled locusts, and part of the wheat-growing region in the European Union has, like Russia, been hit by drought.
Greece hits austerity targets
Greece met European Union and International Monetary Fund austerity targets, but monitors warned of overspending at local levels.
U.S. economic news
Employment falls more than expected; unemployment rate steady at 9.5%
Employment fell more than expected in July as the economy shed 131,000 jobs; the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%. The numbers are another sign that the economic recovery may be losing momentum. Nonfarm payrolls fell last month because the rise in private-sector employment was not enough to make up for the government jobs lost.
U.S. service sector growth picks up; manufacturing growth slows
The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. service sector growth picked up in July. Service companies have expanded every month this year, but the sector continues to grow at a less robust pace than in the manufacturing sector. Its slow recovery has put a damper on overall hiring because it accounts for 80% of U.S. employment. Despite its strong recovery to date, growth in manufacturing slowed in July.
Retail sales rise but fall short of expectations
Retail sales at U.S. chain stores rose 2.9% in July, falling short of forecasts, as markdowns failed to inspire consumers.
U.S. and global corporate news
European banks post solid profits
HSBC's reported pretax profit more than doubled to $11.1 billion in the first half, while BNP Paribas posted a 31% increase in net income as provisions for bad loans dropped. Barclay's posted a 29% increase in net profit, but costs soared and revenue fell at Barclay Capital's investment banking unit. Société Générale's earnings more than tripled as strong retail operations and lower provisions helped offset a weaker investment banking business. American International Group swung to a $2.7 billion net loss for the second quarter because of charges associated with a unit that is being sold. That loss compares with a $1.8 billion net profit a year ago. Still, the company's insurance business generated an operating profit.
Toyota raises forecast; Rio Tinto profits more than triple
Toyota Motor raised its profit forecast for its fiscal year and posted its highest quarterly net profit in two years after it was able to improve its U.S. finance division and reduce costs. Rio Tinto's profits more than tripled in the first half, and the company made plans to increase output in Australia and Africa.
Newsweek sold; Barnes and Noble on block
The Washington Post Company agreed to sell the 77-year-old Newsweek magazine to stereo tycoon Sidney Harman. Barnes and Noble put itself up for sale as digital books eroded its traditional business.
Global economic news
Global manufacturing activity slows
Growth in manufacturing activity slowed in many of the world's major economies in July; the weaker pace indicates that factories will not be the strong driver of growth that they were earlier in the year. Growth slowed in a large portion of Asia, with China's manufacturing activity expanding at the slowest pace in 17 months amid tightening measures and uncertain global demand. In Europe, however, activity strengthened.
ECB and BOE keep rates steady
The European Central Bank and Bank of England kept their main interest rates unchanged this week. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Europe is recovering faster than forecast and money markets are improving. Markets saw these remarks as an indication that the ECB is looking for ways to phase out liquidity tools put in place to fight the financial crisis.
Wheat prices rise after Russia bans exports
Wheat futures prices in Europe and the United States soared to their highest levels in 23 months after Russia said it would ban grain exports because of a severe drought. That move has heightened concerns about global supplies of grain and the possible impact on food prices. Russia's troubles are all the more problematic because many of the world's wheat exporters have also experienced crop problems. Canada has been hit with heavy rains, Australia has battled locusts, and part of the wheat-growing region in the European Union has, like Russia, been hit by drought.
Greece hits austerity targets
Greece met European Union and International Monetary Fund austerity targets, but monitors warned of overspending at local levels.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)